Short Hops

A Look at Twins Shortstops From a UZR Perspective

2011-02-19T10:55:00.013-06:00

JJ Hardy was deemed expendable after the 2010 season because the Twins were looking for more speed. Many fans felt he lacked range in addition to having an average arm. I disagree with both of those arguments, but to each his own. Let's see where Hardy ranks defensively by looking at Minnesota Twins shortstops since Ultimate Zone Rating began as a defensive metric in 2002. I'm going to use a minimum of 500 innings played at shortstop to be included on this list. After going through the list of those that played shortstop for the Twins since 2002, seven seasons stood out.

Number 7: 2004 Cristian Guzman UZR 6.5 in 1,304 innings.

Number 6: 2008 Nick Punto UZR 8.1 in 530 innings.

Number 5: 2010 JJ Hardy UZR 8.1 in 858 innngs, gets nod over 2008 Punto because of more innings played.

Number 4 : 2007 Jason Barlett UZR 8.5 in 1,194 innings.

Number 3: 2006 Jason Bartlett UZR 11.6 in 879 innings.

Number 2: 2005 Jason Bartlett UZR 12.6 in 585 innings.

Number 1: 2005 Juan Castro (believe it or not) UZR 13.2 in 568 innings.

OK, so JJ Hardy wasn't the best shortstop to come through Minnesota. He wasn't too bad though. He was a better fielder than anyone else that's played shortstop for the Twins since 2002 not named Jason Bartlett...I guess Juan Castro too. Oh well, I hope 2011 goes well for JJ Hardy, he gets to be managed by Buck Showalter and play with Vladimir Guerrero. I still feel he deserved another season playing in the Twin Cities.

New Twins HOF Member: Jim Perry

2011-01-26T16:35:00.011-06:00

9, 6, 12, 11, 8, 8, 20, 24, 17, 13 This isn't the lottery. Those are the number of games Jim Perry won each year he played in a Twins uniform from 1963 through 1972. In ten seasons with he Twins Perry was 128-90 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 113 ERA+ and had 17 shutouts. His pinnacle was winning the Cy Young Award in 1970 with a stellar 24-14 record with a 3.04 ERA accomplished by starting a league high 40 games. He was a key cog in the starting rotation for the Twins as the team won the Western Division in both 1969 and 1970 and now he's been elected to Twins Hall of Fame. It's an individual accomplishment I'm sure Jim Perry will savior since he's often overshadowed by his Hall of Fame and spitballing younger brother Gaylord Perry. Together they won 529 games in the major leagues, which is the second most wins by two brothers. Only the Niekro brothers have more with 539 wins. Congratulations to Jim Perry, another forgotten Twin now gets the recognition he deserves. Now let's do the same for Camilo Pascual.

Nick Punto: Best Twins Utility Player Ever

2011-01-25T06:41:00.014-06:00

Nick Punto is finally gone. No longer will a prolonged Twins rally be snuffed out by Punto walking into the batters box. Yes, there will be moments when he's missed, usually when the Twins are in the field, but for everything that's been said about Nick Punto this is never mentioned: he's the best utility player the Twins have ever had. So who was he up against to gain such a lofty title? When the dust settles there are only two that can be considered in Punto's league: Cesar Tovar and Al Newman. Tovar played everywhere, stole bases and even struck out Reggie Jackson once, Al Newman was the utility infielder for two World Championship Twins teams. A few old time fans may say Tovar is better, but Pat Reusse told me via Twitter Punto beats out Tovar by a tick and since I never saw Tovar play I'll take his word for it. Now some may equate being the Twins best utility player to finishing 4th in the Olympic Trials, but there's more value in it than that. The value is he'll be remembered.

Let Alexi Casilla Be Himself

2011-01-25T05:45:00.001-06:00

So Alexi Casilla is going to start at either second base or shortstop when the Twins open the 2011 season. I guess I can live with that, even though I feel JJ Hardy was a better option with a better bat, better glove, better arm... OK, Alexi Casilla can be successful, but he has to be allowed to play everyday. Ron Gardenhire has a tendency with Casilla to push the abort button far too quickly. He can't do that this year. Nick Punto is gone and Matt Tolbert can't be justified as being better than Casilla in anyway. Gardenhire needs to let Casilla become piranha-like: annoying and quick. He has to bunt, chop at the ball and become an aggressive base stealer. Casilla's been successful in 35 of 39 stolen base attempts in the majors (90% success rate). In the minors he stole 164 bases in 220 attempts (75% success rate, hey, he was still learning). Let him run, let him steal 40+ bases, let him irritate teams this year. I seem to remember Twins executives and the manager explaining how they wanted more speed on the team. Casilla can be that speed guy as long as he's allowed to play and even make some mistakes. Alexi Casilla deserves this full time opportunity, let's hope the plug doesn't get pulled on him too soon.

Einstein and the 2011 Twins

2011-01-23T19:34:00.009-06:00

The 2011 Twins and Albert Einstein, an odd combination, yet they're connected. Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is exactly what the Twins front office has done going into the 2011 season. The team has the same rotation, same key players, but probably took a step back in terms of the bullpen, second base and shortstop. It seems the Twins are hoping for a different result than what has happened over and over again, a quick playoff exit. A team can never turn over an entire team, but it's the rotation that worries me most. We shall see. There are 21 days until pitchers and catchers report, but really it seems the end result has already been determined. This year I say it's about 86 victories and third place in the division. Is that insane?

Give Lastings Milledge a Chance

2011-01-23T07:48:00.006-06:00

It's very simple. Jason Kubel can't hit left handed pitching (.233/.312/.351 last three years). The Minnesota Twins could improve their 4th outfielder situation. Sorry Jason Repko. Lastings Milledge can hit lefthanded pitching (.292/.357/.434 last three years), play all the outfield positions well and has some speed. OK, more speed than Kubel. He's not a Twins kind of player, he's been said to have an attitude problem and has an anger issue at times. So be it. Sign Milledge, he'd be happy to join a contender after spending the past four years with the Pirates and Nationals and he would be cheap, probably less than $500,000.

Carl Pavano's Future

2010-10-14T18:21:00.007-05:00

Carl Pavano is a free agent. He'll be looking for a 2 year contract. I don't think the Twins should give him it. One year I'd be fine with, but I feel his gas tank is low. Something tells me getting another year like he had this year would be a tall order. The second half this year had him getting hard more often than fans would like to see. The signs are there. Although, at 34 years of age he's not ancient and his ERA+ this year was 111, his highest since 2004. The Twins still need to be careful here, a two year contract may be seen as a given by most fans, but I'd allocate those dollars elsewhere. That second year could have the Twins paying on a commodity they get little value from.

Thankless Job: Middle Relief

2010-08-18T06:46:00.009-05:00

I've watched baseball since 1984 and something that should've been obvious has finally dawned on me. Pitching effectively in middle relief is the most thankless and difficult job in baseball. Last night Jim Thome finished off the most dramatic game played so far at Target Field with a towering game winning home run. It was possible because of failed starting pitching by Scott Baker and ineffective middle relief work. How many great middle relievers can you name? Off the top of my head in the American League it's Matt Thornton, Grant Balfour, Jesse Crain (the last few months), Daniel Bard, Joaquin Benoit and Darren O'Day. That's a short list. Great closers make the job of pitching look easy. Middle relievers at times make the job of pitching look precariously similar to mine deactivation. Not many are effective consistently and rarely are they recognized for being good at what they do. Yes, Rauch struggled again last night, but all in all the Twins core of middle relievers are among the best in baseball and will be the key to making it to the playoffs and deep into the postseason.

The Apocalypse Doesn't Include Drew Butera

2010-03-31T23:00:00.010-05:00

Some very knowledgeable Minnesota Twins fans spent 7 hours on Twitter yesterday debating the merits of Wilson Ramos and Drew Butera for the backup catching duties to start this season. This topic deserved seven hours of back and forth typing on the computer? While that fact alone may be a sign of the Apocalypse, Drew Butera being named the Twins backup catcher is not. Remember he isn't going to be the backup the entire season. Switch hitting Jose Morales will be back. Don't worry. It may take 8 weeks for Morales to heal, but he will return, I promise. Drew Butera may get 10 at bats in a week if he's lucky. This may go down as 10 weekly at bats his .214/.296/.317 career minor league line says he doesn't deserve, but it's not the end of the world. You won't get any argument from me, he probably doesn't deserve those 10 at bats, but you also won't get any argument from me if Wilson Ramos had made the team either. Ramos is a superb defensive catcher and can hit around .290, but he's only 21 years old. In addition, he has played only 65 games above single A. Some refining and gaining experience are most likely in order. In a perfect world the Twins would like Drew Butera to at least hit his weight, which is 205. If he doesn't then what? More back and forth typing on this rather dull topic? I'll pass. Don't forget, many clubs have their own Drew Buteras. We should be lucky our Drew Butera is only staying temporarily.

Twins' Mount Rushmore Has an Addition: Joe Mauer

2010-03-22T19:16:00.001-05:00

As expected Joe Mauer has signed for the Minnesota Twins. He will be paid $23 million a year for the next 8 years. His $184 contract is the 4th largest in baseball history. While everyone is pleased that Mauer is now under contract the deal will eventually be questioned if the Twins don't surround him with an adequate supporting cast. The hope is that his contract doesn't keep the team from pursuing top shelf players. Only time will tell on that one. Short of 1987 and 1991 has there ever been a better time to be a Minnesota Twins fan? Fans have a new stadium, the team has finally gone out and signed players to fill spots who are not leftovers from the free agency market and Joe Mauer is under contract until he is 35. The only rain cloud is Joe Nathan's injury and that is a sizeable rain cloud, but let's not dwell on the negative. By signing with the Twins, Mauer has put himself forever in the top tier of Minnesota sports legends. You now have Killebrew, Puckett and Mauer occupying a very small space atop the Minnesota sports mountain. It's difficult to name any sports individual who has played in this town that would bump any of those three down a notch. Fran Tarkenton, Kent Hrbek, Alan Page, Kevin Garnett, Neal Broten and even George Miken can't do it. The Minnesota Twins have their own Mount Rushmore and Joe Mauer is the newest addition.

This Pain is Good for Twins Fans

2010-03-21T08:32:00.005-05:00

This morning Joe Nathan played catch with pitching coach Rick Anderson. The session was short lived as Nathan felt pain in his elbow. It was determined he will have Tommy John surgery and his baseball career for the next 12-18 months is now in flux. In an odd way his feeling pain this morning is a good thing. Imagine if he had felt nothing as he threw and then went back into a somewhat regular pitching routine. He would have done more damage and likely prolonged his recovery time. Now the team has a concrete plan and timetable in place to treat the injury. Next for them is solving who will close this year and next year. I'm against the Twins trading prospects Wilson Ramos or Ben Revere for San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell. Bell has had only one year as closer. His 42 saves last season showed he may be made for the job, but I don't like that weight has been an on going issue for him. I feel the Twins should go in-house for their closer solution. I'm not opposed to having a young arm eventually get the job this year or most likely next year. Arms such as Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney or Alex Burnett should be the focus of any future closer talk for the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins' Catch 22%

2010-03-07T14:33:00.010-06:00

I hope fifth grade math doesn't trip up the Minnesota Twins. If their payroll is near $100 million and they pay Joe Mauer roughly $22 million that's 22% of the team's salary going to one player. It's not difficult math, but a little mind numbing at the same time. The Twins are stuck in the proverbial Catch-22. Not signing Mauer destroys their image in the minds of fans and players around the league, trading him would get nowhere near equal value in return and signing him financially hamstrings the team possibly for 10 years, but they must sign him. Baseball is a business, but a business where emotions still play a part in decision making. Minnesota sports fans are born with fragile emotions. Losing Mauer to the Yankees would be the baseball equivalent of an atomic bomb directed at the fanbase. If he wants 10 years then Twins have to sign him for 10 years. No one is excited to pay a catcher $20+ million when he's 34 years old, but the hand the Twins have been dealt is drafting and developing one of the best catchers ever. Is 22% of a payroll too much to pay just one player out of 25? Yes, but after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana the Minnesota Twins have no choice.

Mike Maroth's Final Call

2010-03-06T12:01:00.001-06:00

Like many baseball careers Mike Maroth is not in control of when the end comes. It usually arrives like the suddenness of a 2:00 AM phone call. Maroth is a a left handed starting pitcher the Minnesota Twins have invited to spring training with a history of arm and knee injuries. He wants to avoid that final call that ends a career, but when you are a 33 year old finesse pitcher with a career ERA of 5.05 and a record of 50-67 the end is knocking. A coaching position at the lower levels of the sport beckons. Maroth's only notable resume item doesn't help matters, which is being the last pitcher to lose 20 games (21 games exactly) as he did on the 2003 Detroit Tigers. There's no doubt Mike Maroth came to Twins came looking to impress and hope his softly tossed arsenal of pitches could land him the final spot in the bullpen. Praying his left arm could last a few weeks longer and act as if it is ten years younger than it is was his goal. The body seldom cooperates in such matters and the brain soon follows which leads us to the 6th inning of the first spring training game against the Boston Red Sox. The Twins are leading 1-0 in what is a meaning less game for most players in uniform. For Mike Maroth this game is anything but meaningless, his career and future rest on the first impression he gives the Twins' coaching staff during this brief one inning of work. That first impression may also be the last impression he makes. Maroth yielded in succession a double, a walk then an RBI single to tie the game. A double play bailed him out of further damage. Double plays save innings, but not careers. Mike Maroth may end up pitching for the Twins AAA Rochester Red Wings, but his final pitch is nearly here. Spring training is suppose to be a time for optimism, but for aging pitchers like Mike Maroth it's a reality check they'd rather not face.

The Mysterious Fifth Outfielder

2010-03-06T07:05:00.007-06:00

As a fan when the largest debate on your favorite baseball team is who will be the fifth outfielder good things are in store for you. That is where the Minnesota Twins are. Fans are concerned, writers have something to write about, but really it's not as large a problem as many make it seem. Yesterday Ron Gardenhire announced Michael Cuddyer would be the primary backup when Span needs a rest. The Twitter boards lit up saying he's bad enough in right field why give him more ground to cover? I was even involved in a short debate with people who felt Delmon Young was a better outfielder than Cuddyer. You can throw all the numbers at me that support that argument and I will never believe it. Delmon Young is an outfielder who is diametrically opposed to anything that resembles a straight line, especially when that straight line is towards a fly ball. Cuddyer is the better outfielder and it's not close. Alexi Casilla in yesterday's game already alligator armed a fly ball by the warning track so his future will most likely remain in the infield. Matt Tolbert was once a centerfielder so there remains hope he can play that position competently. As John Madden would say Nick Punto is Nick Punto. He can do no wrong, especially with a glove so Gardy will not hesitate to put him out there if need be. Jacque Jones was the early frontrunner for the backup backup outfielder, but his inability with the lumber the last two years hurts him, but he does have the former Twin badge which will take him to at least the last cut in spring training. So what do we have?

Alexi Casilla: Out of the running and maybe not on the Twins opening day roster.

Delmon Young: Unable to patrol left field, never considered.

Michael Cuddyer: Playing centerfield won't create the defensive quadmire many believe.

Matt Tolbert: Dark horse, hustles in Punto-like fashion and knows his ability to play any position will keep him the majors. He may win by a nose from the outside.

Nick Punto: I think his task will be mainly infield related this season. Punto is like Gardy's blanky, he needs him close by. Outfield is too far away.

Jacque Jones: Twins nice in play here, if he hits and shows some range he can win the spot. Past two years show this may be unlikely.

The Winner: Just like Tic Tac Toe there is no winner here, but that fifth outfield spot will be Cuddyer's and Tolbert's. They are more than capable of handling this opportunity and hopefully will not wake up the echoes of Rich Becker patrolling centerfield.

Brad Radke vs. Camilo Pascual

2010-02-25T06:34:00.017-06:00

While listening and writing into the entertaining Fanatic Jack's podcast on Wednesday night the topic of Brad Radke's greatness was brought up. While Radke was a fine pitcher I felt there had to be pitchers of the same or better caliber than him that played for the Twins. I threw the name of Camilo Pascual into the discussion and created a short debate on the merits of each pitcher. Neither person running the podcast had much background on Pascual. How unfortunate. The Minnesota Twins are 50 years into their existence. Fans cannot lose track of those players that played decades ago. They were very talented and represented the team well. Camilo Pascual is an excellent example of that. Even though Camilo may object, let's put him under the microscope briefly.

Let's start a comparison with ERA+. Radke had a career of ERA+ of 112, while Pascual had a 103 for his career. Now let's look at Camilo's years with the Twins only. His Twins only ERA+ averages out to 114. He spent 7 years as a Senator and another 6 with the Twins. Some of his most dominant years were in Minnesota.

For 3 years from 1961-1963 Pascual led the AL in strikeouts with: 221, 206 and 202
From 1961-1964 he won 15, 18, 18 and 14 games.
In 1961 he had 8 shutouts and followed that up with 5 in 1962.
His ERA+ numbers from 1961 through 1966: 123, 123, 149, 109, 106 and 74 (yikes!).

Brad Radke had pinpoint control as we all know. He led the league with 1 walk per 9 innings in 2001 and over the course of his career posted an outstanding 1.6 walks per 9 innings. Pascual cannot compare here. He averaged 3.3 walks per nine innings and never averaged below 2.4 walks per 9 innings during his career. I could analyze Brad Radke further, but why? Radke just doesn't have the league leading numbers that Camilo did in some areas for even a short amount of time. Breaking down Brad Radke's numbers show him to be a slightly above average pitcher as his ERA+ of 112 shows. He was 12% above league average over the course of his career while Pascual was 14% better than league average while in a Twins uniform. I will take Camilo Pascual because of his league leading strikeout numbers for that 3 year stretch from 1961 through 1963. I admit it's close and Radke was part of an important Twins group that resurrected life back in to the franchise, but Camilo Pascual was better. His dominance was greater despite it being short lived.

Cardboard Insights

2010-02-22T21:02:00.013-06:00

Every February for the past 26 years I look forward to a simple tradition. The opening of a new Topps baseball card pack. What will the new design look like? How good will the photography be? It's simply fun and for me the opening of that pack is the opening of the baseball season. This year as I opened my first pack I came upon Randy Johnson's card. It's a beautiful card of him lunging and throwing in one motion to first base after what I'm assuming is a bunt attempt. A difficult maneuver for a 6'11 person at age 45. Then I realized this is the last regular baseball card Randy Johnson will ever have. I flip to the back and in small print is a career that began in 1988. The numerous statistics in red indicate he led the league in that category and there are amazingly 28 of them. Anybody can go to the internet and look up a player's career statistics, but in this age of technology and instant communication a baseball card still holds tremendous insight into the quality of a player's career. To hold 20 some odd years of work in your hand crystallizes a career. As I looked at the card I realized Randy Johnson was a rarity. A player of enormous talent who dominated hitters for prolonged stretches in overpowering ways. Of course I knew he was a great pitcher, a Hall of Fame pitcher in fact, but seeing his entire career as the numbers bounce off each other on the back of that baseball card I realized I may never see a pitcher like him again. Did I realize he was a once in a lifetime player as I watched him? Not really. It's odd how players you grow up with or players you watch currently often seem very good, but it isn't until they retire and you reflect on their historical standing in the game does their true greatness come out. A baseball card helps this process happen. Randy Johnson is the greatest left handed pitcher ever. Did I comprehend that until I looked at that one final card of his? Surprisingly I didn't. A baseball card while small, fragile and for the young, is still enormously insightful and entertaining. I guess I was luckier to get that Randy Johnson card than I originally thought.

Alexi Casilla Has His Own Favre

2010-02-18T14:32:00.000-06:00

Alexi Casilla needs to become what Tarvaris Jackson was on the Minnesota Vikings this past season, a young player willing to sit and learn as a veteran plays his position for a season. No Brett Favre isn't going to play second base, but Orlando Hudson will. Casilla has had 903 plate appearances in a Twins uniform for a .244/.301/.314 line. His career OPS+ of 66 puts him 34% below where an average hitter would be. Defending him especially after batting .202 last year is difficult. Even his fielding is hard to justify. Surprisingly he has been -9.2 runs below average over the course of his short career. Some fielding metrics even have him as the worst fielding second baseman in the American League. Unfortunately, it can be said the Minnesota Twins spent all of last year trying to overcome the hole his poor performance left at second base. Just an average year by Casilla would have avoided putting the Twins in a Game 163 situation. They would have likely won the division outright by 2 games, but instead he batted .202. Needless to say, our friend Alexi is on the hot seat. Despite all this I feel the Twins would be wrong to cut or trade him. He's only 24...yes, just 24 and he won't turn 25 until July! He has above average speed, has had big moments in a Twins uniform and more importantly his minor league record indicates he's much better than what we've seen. In 1,809 minor league plate appearances Casilla had a line of .298/.371/.375. If those numbers regress 10% in the majors he becomes a .269/.334/.338. player. Yes, those are very average numbers and the slugging is frightening, but some potential shows. The 2010 season should be Alexi Casilla watching how Orlando Hudson plays professionally at second base, runs the bases, and approaches each at bat. Let Hudson play the same role Brett Favre played this year for his backup quarterbacks. Alexi Casilla needs the tutelage of a veteran player. 2010 is the final year for him to be a student.

Nick Punto Can't Stop Fate

2010-02-12T06:34:00.005-06:00

Nick Punto has lived a charmed life, but it's just starting. His life is the life any of us would take if given the opportunity. Professional baseball player, father, husband and multi millionaire, but his destiny is more than that. There is something about Punto that makes one think he is more than just a player on the Minnesota Twins. His cosmic importance is more than we can comprehend. He is like a character on the TV show Lost. His importance is clear to those behind the scenes, but the rest of us try each day to figure what his value is in the grand scheme of the Minnesota Twins. Each game is a new episode for us. We either question his relevance or our eyes are opened to the skills he's capable of bringing to a winning ball club. He can be the good guy when he's throwing a runner out at home in the late innings of game 163 or the bad guy who runs through a stop sign at third base in the playoffs and is easily thrown out trying get back. Nick Punto is like many other people around us: Who are the good guys and who are the bad guys? Fans are left with that question nightly with his up and down play. Nick Punto's role with the Minnesota Twins is far from over. In the future once his playing days are over he will move into management and work his way up through the organization making his mark at every level. His destiny lies as manager of the Twins. Who will be there when Joe Mauer's number is retired? Manager Punto. Who will be there when the Twins win the 2025 World Series? Manager Punto. Nick Punto can't stop fate, he will always be a Minnesota Twin. Fans can try and disrupt his timeline, but everyone's fate is irreversibly cast. Nick Punto will be a part of our lives for a very long time to come.

Best Twins Team of My Lifetime

2010-02-06T22:27:00.007-06:00

The above title may not be an overstatement. We have watched a front office go from settling for free agents that had glaring imperfections to one that is putting nearly a $100 million payroll on the field for the 2010 season. I was born in 1973, began following the Minnesota Twins in 1984 and this is the best Twins team I have seen going into the season. Of course there was the championship teams of 1987 and 1991, but going into spring training expectations were tempered for those clubs. The 2010 version of the Minnesota Twins looks like a team that should capture the division, win a playoff series and maybe even do more. Expectations are high and they should be. When a batting order of Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Hardy and Punto are ready to go most nights along with having Jim Thome able to pinch hit or start when needed you are looking at a team that should win 4 to 5 games a week. The rotation isn't top heavy with talent, but full of pitchers who will win 12-15 games and Liriano is lurking, teasing fans with reports of a return of his 2006 form. So it's easy to see why optimism is so high for fans and players of the team. As long as the injury bug stays away and multiple players don't choose to have down years the Minnesota Twins will win 93-95 games and hit 190-210 home runs. In addition, they will win the division, win the ALDS in five games and represent the American League in the World Series. Will they win the World Series? Luck needs to be on one's side for that to happen and luck is unpredictable. Let's just say the Minnesota Twins will go to the World Series and open Target Field in style with the best team they've put together since I've followed the team. Nothing more can be expected at this point.

No More Adventures In Leftfielding?

2010-01-30T22:16:00.012-06:00

I was listening to AM 1500's broadcast of Twinsfest on Saturday and was struck by an interview that took place with Twins leftfielder Delmon Young. When the topic of if Young would miss the Metrodome was asked he was very clear that he never could see the ball against the roof and especially during day games. Young didn't just say one sentence, but was empathic in his dislike for the roof and how it caused him problems seeing the ball. Could moving outdoors transform Delmon Young from a very poor leftfielder to just a poor leftfielder? Was the Metrodome roof Delmon Young's kryptonite? All kidding aside the days of seeing him as an unwatchable force with a glove may be over. Look at these statistics regarding Delmon Young's fielding.

In 2006 Young played 30 games/252 innings in right field. This is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 was 17.9. This is the runs above average he was rated per 150 games played. Delmon is seen as an above average outfielder in his first season.
In 2007 Young played 133 games/1,134 innings in right field. With an appropriate sample size his defensive issues were shown, but only to a tune of 3.0 for his UZR/150. Delmon is rated a slightly above average outfielder here. Young also played 29 games/242.2 innings in centerfield. He must have been a disaster because he had a (shield the children's eyes)UZR/150 of -44.7! I'm assuming he was moved to right field after this and then traded to the Twins in the offseason.
In 2008 the Twins moved Young to left field under the teflon sky of the Metrodome. He played 151 games/1,324 innings there. His UZR/150 plummeted to -14.9. Delmon can no longer be considered an average fielder, he's letting an additional 15 runs to score a year.
In 2009 Young continues to play left field where he logs 98 games/806.2 innings. A severe cut in playing time, but the UZR/150 continues to go the wrong direction stopping at an eye averting -25.6! Unbelievably he let 25 runs score that shouldn't have.

It may be hard to conceive, but young Delmon has gone from a +3 runs above average outfielder to a -25.6 runs below average statue. Is it possible he can take baby steps and become a UZR/150 -10.0 outfielder by just moving outside to Target Field? I think he can, but if he can't it may be time to put his glove wherever the White Sox put Frank Thomas' glove years ago.

Projecting Home Runs For the 2010 Minnesota Twins

2010-01-29T06:41:00.014-06:00

Jim Thome's massive swings will now be a part of the upcoming Minnesota Twins season. His signing started me thinking about the number of home runs the team would hit this year. I believe Thome will get 400 plate appearances this season, which is more than many fans feel he will see. Here are how each player will fair in terms of hitting home runs along with their increase or decrease in home runs from last year. Far from scientific, but then again what projection is scientific?

Denard Span: 8 (+0)
JJ Hardy: 22 (+11)
Joe Mauer: 23 (-5)
Justin Morneau: 29 (-1)
Jason Kubel: 30 (+2)
Michael Cuddyer: 24 (-8)
Delmon Young: 9 (-4)
Brendan Harris: 4 (-2)
Nick Punto: 1 (+0)
Jim Thome: 21 (-2)
Bench: 8

Projected 2010 team total: 179 home runs

The team's 2009 total was 172 home runs so 2010 should see a slight increase in home runs. If Target Field becomes a favorable park for hitters these numbers could increase to possibly 190 still a far cry from the club record of 225 home runs hit by the Twins in 1963. Needless to say facing the Twins this year will be a difficult task for pitchers because most of the lineup will be able to drive the ball especially when Thome is in the lineup. Replace Harris with Danny Valencia at third base and add about 10 additional home runs from his bat alone. Finally, if Target Field proves to be hitter friendly and a few Twins add onto the home run totals I projected above fans will be following a team that will have hit over 200 home runs in 2010. That should put more than enough runs on the board for the team to win 90+ games.

Really...Again?

2010-01-25T06:34:00.008-06:00

It happened again? Yes, Viking fans took repeated punches to the gut with another winning field goal in overtime, an interception with only seconds remaining, fumble after fumble and a crushing 12 men on the field penalty. I thought the pieces were in place this time. Brett told me that over and over on the radio. I guess they were, but the Vikings kept dropping them. Are the Minnesota Vikings a cursed team? No, just a football team that can't make that one big play to seal the deal. It's been thirty-three long years since a Super Bowl trip. What agony awaited them if they had made the journey? Actually, the most painful part is I feel the Vikings would have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl. Instead we have five straight painful NFC Championship losses in a row for the group of purple. Others before us have been down this inglorious road. In 1977 former Star Tribune columnist Jim Klobuchar wrote a book after the Vikings lost to the Raiders in the Super Bowl titled "Will the Vikings Ever Win the Super Bowl?" That question can now be answered...unfortunately no. The Vikings are the Red Sox before 2004. That is our fate.

Twins Greatest Hitting Seasons #41-50

2010-01-18T20:20:00.017-06:00

Yes, this was supposed to be a continuing segment a few months ago and I left off at #45. My short attention span didn't get me very far the first time, so I will shorten the commentary and simply present the facts. What are the facts? I looked at the OPS+ numbers for each Twins season and simply ranked hitters from one to fifty since we are approaching the 50th season of Twins baseball. OPS+ is an effective way of gauging how effective a hitter is because it takes batting average and slugging percentage and puts it into a nice number that can be judged on how far it is away from 100, which is the number an average hitter would earn. The difficulty of hitting in a particular season or the inverse being how easy it was to hit in a season is factored in. This makes comparing how Harmon Killebrew hit in 1967 (OPS+ of 174) to Kirby Puckett in 1991 (OPS+ of 119) easy. Killebrew was a whopping 74% better than the average hitter in 1967 and Puckett, while great in 1991, was only 19% better than the average hitter. Killebrew crushes him in the comparison. Two final notes, I had 500 plate appearances as the minimum to qualify in these rankings and any OPS+ ties were resolved by looking at the regular OPS number which is the addition of the OBP and SLG.

#41 Harmon Killebrew 1972/OPS+ 138: The last decent year the Killer had. Put up .231/.367/.450 along with 26 HR and 74 RBI. He did walk 94 times showing pitchers were still preoccupied with thoughts of clouts from his past.
#42 Justin Morneau 2008/OPS+ 137: Hit 23 HR and had 129 RBI. His overall .300/.374/.499 line hides a .267 second half batting average. Did play in all 163 games.

#43 Joe Mauer 2008/OPS+ 137: Rebounded from a subpar for him year in 2007 to have a .328/.413/.451 season. He walked 84 times, led the league in hitting and had a season that he'll probably duplicate many more times in his career.

#44 Tony Oliva 1970/OPS+ 137: Tony had league leading 204 hits and 34 doubles. Had a rare injury free season in playing 157 games. Hit 23 HR and had 107 RBI with a .325/.364/.514. Twins won division and Oliva came in 2nd in MVP voting.

#45 Jimmie Hall 1963/OPS+ 136: Forgotten Twin by many fans because this season was his best as a pro. As a rookie hit 33 HR and had 80 RBI to go along with .260/.342/.521. Despite this great year Hall finished just 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 33 HR in his rookie season without a single at bat in any previous season is still an American League record.
#46 Tony Oliva 1966/OPS+ 136: Despite ranking high in many of the American League statistical categories and leading the AL in hits for the third year in a row, Oliva slumped down the stretch. He took a batting average in the .320s into August, but endured a 5 for 41 slump in August. 1966 was another year of personal accolades for Oliva. He won his first and only Gold Glove of his career for his play in right field, he was a member of the American League All Star team and came in 6th in the MVP voting. His final line was: .307/.353/.502.

#47 Justin Morneau 2009/OPS+ 135: Despite batting just .201 in 174 at bats after the All Star break Justin Morneau still had the 48th best season at the plate in team history. Fans may disagree since they can still recall many disappointing at bats Morneau had in the second half of the season in addition with his missing the last three weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With that said, his first half statistics are what carries his season into the top 50 in team history. In that first half Morneau batted: .311/.390/.575 with 21 home runs, 70 RBI and 44 walks, but ended with .274/.363/.516.

#48 Bob Allison 1967/OPS+ 135: The statistics right handed batter Bob Allison put up in 1967 may not seem that remarkable in the offense orientated era baseball currently finds itself in, but they stand out in Twins' history. The Twins as a team in 1967 batted .240 and that was third best in the American League behind Detroit at .243 and Boston with .255. The average American League team batting average in 1967 was .236, a far cry from the AL average of .267 for 2009. 1967 was close to the bottoming out for hitters or the pinnacle for pitchers depending on how you look at it. In 1968 the American League average for batting was .230 and the result was the mound was lowered to reduce some of the advantage pitchers had and the strike zone was reduced. All of these considerations need to be looked at when analyzing Bob Allison's terrific .258/.356/.470 for the 1967 season.

#49 Earl Battey 1963/OPS+ 134: The 1963 season is Battey's only appearance in the top 50 hitting seasons in team history. In 1963 he was an All Star and came in 7th in the MVP voting. In his career Battey was a 3 time Gold Glove winner and 4 time All Star. In the 1965 All Star game at Metropolitan Stadium he received the most votes of any American League All Star and finished the year with a .285/.369/.476 line.

#50 Tony Oliva 1969/OPS+ 133: Tony Oliva was third in the AL with a batting average of .309, was named an All Star. His final numbers were: .309/.355/.496. Despite winning 97 games the Twins fell to the eventual World Series champions Baltimore Orioles in the League Championship Series 3-0 in games. Oliva's bat was not the problem in the ALCS. He batted .385/.429/.769 with one home run in the series.

Anthony Slama: Let the Audition Begin

2010-01-17T22:41:00.017-06:00

Obviously Minnesota Twins minor league pitching sensation Anthony Slama has made someone in the front office angry. His minor league numbers are staggering, but as of now at age 25 he has not pitched an inning in the Major Leagues. Rather ridiculous when you think of the pitching difficulties the Twins faced last season. The 6'3"Slama must get ample time with the big club this year or he should be traded while he still has value. Joe Nathan is under contract for the Twins through 2011 with a club option for 2012 at a hefty $12.5 million. At that point Nathan will be 37 and price and age should make him expendable. By then Anthony Slama should have spent two years in the Twins' bullpen adjusting to Major League hitting and getting ready to move into the closer role in 2012. It's a job Slama has been training for throughout the minor leagues and with amazing success. Here are his statistics as a bullpen stopper in the minors:

13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and 3.66 K/BB ratio. The walks have been going the wrong way the last 2 years though.

WHIP of 1.04 for career and an ERA of 1.86, but again ERA has gone the wrong way the last two years at around 2.50.

Slama has given up 5.7 hits per 9 innings pitched.

He's given up only 5 home runs in 183.2 innings pitched and all of those came last year.

Rotoexperts.com is quoted as saying, "Slama’s repertoire includes a slider, changeup and his out pitch, an 88-92 MPH fastball." That fastball needs another 3-4 mph for him to fit the closer role ideally. A strike against him.

The lack of a Nathan like 95 mph fastball is a real concern. That isn't something that can be developed. His slider is his admitted out pitch, but without seeing it I doubt it reminds anyone of Steve Carlton's. Despite these issues Slama should get a real chance to pitch with the Twins in 2010. If the next two years proves he's not capable of filling the closer role, go in another direction, but at least let the experiment begin this season.

Guessitimating the Minnesota Twins 2010 Win Total

2010-01-16T20:51:00.014-06:00

There are many ways of predicting how players and teams will perform in the upcoming season. Even experts agree projecting player performance is more guess work than science. So in what is a very unscientific method of determining future performance I looked at the Minnesota Twins starting pitchers and how statistic guru Bill James has projected them to do this year. I took his numbers and then went with what my gut said each pitcher will have for total wins by the end of the season. Again, this is guesstimating and just for fun. Bill James' projections are in parenthesis for starting pitchers only.

Kevin Slowey: 14 wins (11-10)
Scott Baker: 15 wins (12-10)
Carl Pavano: 10 wins (10-12)
Nick Blackburn: 12 wins (11-12)
Fransisco Liriano: 10 wins (8-6)
Jon Rauch: 4 wins
Joe Nathan: 2 wins
Jose Mijares: 2 wins
Matt Guerrier: 3 wins
Brian Duensing: 8 wins
Jesse Crain: 2 wins
Pat Neshek: 2 wins
Others: 7 wins

This would be a 91 win season for the Twins and most likely good enough to win their division. The team would have an increase of 5 wins over their 2009 record before the extra win from game 163 is factored in. The one glaring issue I have with these projections is envisioning getting 18 wins from a Liriano/Duensing combination. I can see 14 wins much easier from them, but without really knowing what the rotation will look like who knows? To get to 91 wins the pitching will obviously need to be strong and consistant, but eliminating the offensive black hole at second base is a must and solidifying third base is a close second. Runs need to be scored to break the 90 wins plateau or the Twins will quickly become an 85 win team fighting for a playoff spot.

It's Time To Do the Right Thing

2010-01-12T06:41:00.007-06:00

Mark McGwire now admits using steroids throughout his career including the 1998 season when he broke Roger Maris' single season home run record of 61. Credit McGwire for going public and admitting his guilt, but he is just part of an era that has torn the game of baseball down in such historic fashion there is nothing to compare it to. At this point Major League Baseball needs to do the right thing and return the single season home run record back to Roger Maris' 61 home runs. This is where the record should be and what many fans view as the true record anyway. Stop playing the innocent until proven absolutely, positively guilty game and then still doing nothing. Even track and field has stopped taking that old approach. Track and field regularly expunges records and takes medals from big name athletes when steroids are connected to their name. Come on baseball, stop pretending anyone has hit more than 61 home runs not named Maris and stop pretending anyone has hit more than 755 career home runs not named Hank Aaron. It is insulting to Hank Aaron and insulting to the Maris family. Wipe steroid users from the record books completely or put an asterisk next to their name. Let steroid users live with their inner guilt and shame, but put rightful legends, such as Maris and Aaron, back on their deserved pedestal.

Danny Valencia for Third Baseman

2010-01-04T20:36:00.015-06:00

Enough hemming and hawing, the future is now for Danny Valencia. The time has come to prove if he can hit and play third base in the Major Leagues. It isn't even a matter of if he will succeed or not anymore or whether he has the statistics to make the jump to the big club. Valencia just needs to play, make mistakes and the Twins need to hope he learns from his mistakes and becomes better, but at the big league level. The free agent market is drying up for third basemen plus the revolving door at many infield positions, such as third base, for the Twins cannot continue. Especially when many of the players they bring in as patchwork options are 32+ years in age. This organization needs to think of infield player development as their number one priority and fill in holes with free agents. It seems the Twins have taken the opposite approach the last few years. Look for free agents, then look for waiver wire fill ins. It's a policy that is destined for failure so put an end to it. Joe Crede, when healthy is possibly the finest fielding third basemen the Twins have had in their nearly 50 year history. Unfortunately, he is rarely healthy so why not bring him back and then hand over third base to Danny Valencia in mid-season. Is there risk in that plan? Possibly, but really it has much more potential for success than failure and it's remarkably simple. Danny Valencia is 24, bring him up now and by the time he's 27 you have a third baseman who is polished and ready to hopefully help carry a team. On the other hand, if the Twins sign a free agent third baseman this off season they are telling Valencia he isn't worth their effort. His trade value would be lower at that point and the team would be sending a negative message to the entire minor league organization. Danny Valencia has put in his time. He deserves to be the Minnesota Twins third baseman no later that July 1st.

Houston Jimenez, a Hall of Famer? Yes!

2010-01-02T10:20:00.019-06:00

The year the Minnesota Twins became a part of my life was 1984. I was only 10 years old and the Twins were in an actual race to win their division. Now they are in contention every year it seems, but even my 10 year old brain knew having the Twins contend in 1984 was something unusual. The Twins didn't win the division, but two forces came together on that team that defy logic. Kirby Puckett, future Hall of Famer, Game 6 hero and player that would turn around the Twins franchise joined someone I remember as the worst baseball player I had ever seen: 135 pound shortstop Houston Jimenez. There was and still isn't any need to pour over statistics trying to find his redeeming value as a ball player. There are none, he was simply overmatched. Twins manager Billy Gardner kept playing him and my 10 year old mind kept asking why? How could I be so cynical in my young age? Let's review the career of Houston Jimenez:

In 438 plate appearances Jimenez batted .185, with an OBP of .221 and SLG of .234. He never hit a home run. In 1984 he was rewarded with 317 plate appearances (why?) by the Twins. In 1984 alone he hit .201/.238/.245. He even commited 18 errors as well for good measure.
He was involved in the infamous Dave Kingman popup that never came down in the Metrodome. Pictured below on that play he is half looking up and half ready to protect himself from a falling projectile that would never come.
In short, he was a disaster in 1984 and Billy Gardner contributed greatly to the Twins losing the division championship by continually playing him. Recently, I was reading Baseball Prospectus' book "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" and came across a chapter detailing that close race in 1984 for the American League Western Division. The chapter spoke of Jimenez being a -12.0 VORP for the season and Gardner needing his defense in the game as long as he hits .250. Well that didn't happen and Houston Jimenez quickly faded from the game of baseball on the Major League level.

With some searching on Google it became surprisingly apparent that Houston Jimenez has managed quite well since that horrific 1984 season with the Twins. He went back into the Mexican League and played until 2001, making his career one of the longest in the history of the Mexican League. His Wikipedia page details his best year, "1995 was Jiménez's 4th .300 season in Mexico, with a career-high .337, .503 slugging and 40 doubles. He posted a .431 OBP and drove in 59 runs and drew 64 walks, career highs. After two decades as a generally poor offensive contributor, Jiménez even led the league in a category, posting the most doubles in the Mexican League." In 2007 Houston Jimenez, the career .185 hitter in the big leagues, was inducted into the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame with a nod more towards his longevity and what he has contributed to the Mexican game of baseball than any superior skill. He even coached the Mexican World Baseball Classic team in 2009. Good for him!

I guess the 1984 Twins had two Hall of Famers on it's roster. Who can I blame that season on now? Of course, how could I forget...Ron Davis was our closer. He's not even in his High School Hall of Fame...is he?

In the Year 2000...

2010-01-01T07:52:00.011-06:00

Ah yes, a new decade is here. Let's look back as Minnesota Twins fans to what our reality was in the year 2000. The Twins finished up their 8th straight losing season with a record of 69-93. Tom Kelly's act with young players was wearing extremely thin and the Twins were going nowhere, but really they were bound for something much worse than multiple 90+ loss seasons. That something was being eliminated after the 2002 season. Not from an otherworldly force, but by their very owner, Carl Pohlad with an assist from commissioner Bud Selig. Luckily the Twins received a favorable court ruling allowing them to play and they won their division in 2002 and then defeated the favored Oakland A's in a 5th and deciding game. That 5th game in Oakland was Brad Radke's greatest game in terms of being a bulldog when most believed the Twins would lose. The 2002 team jump started a new era of Twins baseball and should be thought of right behind the 1987 and 1991 teams in terms of franchise importance. Without the 2002 team succeeding the road for the Twins existence would have been difficult and murky at best. Since 2000 the Twins have won 5 division championships and put considerable distance between themselves and the dismal record they had from 1993 to 1999. Ron Gardenhire makes many of us scratch our heads at times, but he is a large reason why the team has done so well these past 10 years. Amazingly the Minnesota Twins are now looked upon as a model franchise other teams try to emulate. Yes, not too bad a decade at all.

Baseball Purgatory

2009-12-31T12:45:00.010-06:00

Hall of Fame ballots are due soon and decisions must be made. In this era of new statistics and ways of measuring players' performance one standard that continues to define a Hall of Fame player is getting 3,000 hits. The Baseball Hall of Fame is proud of the high standards players are expected to meet to gain entrance into the pantheon of baseball greats, but here are players who have between 2,700 hits and 3,000 hits and are not in the Hall of Fame. They are in baseball purgatory. Unable to be recognized as hall of famers, but great players in their own right these hitters deserve acknowledgement of what they did, which was close to being the best, but not quite. Here is a list of players forever stuck in baseball purgatory:

Barry Bonds: 2,935 hits (God may send him to the real pergatory)
Harold Baines: 2,866 hits (Should be in Hall of Fame.)
Andre Dawson: 2,744 hits (Hawk=HOFer)
Vada Pinson: 2,757 hits (Only 256 HR dooms him)
Al Oliver: 2,743 hits (Only 219 HR, overshadowed on great 1970s Pirate teams.)
Roberto Alomar: 2,724 hits (Will be in HOF soon.)
Rusty Staub: 2,716 hits (Fan favorite with odd name, played 23 years and averaged only 49 K's a year.)
Bill Buckner: 2,715 hits (Got many hits, but remembered for the one hit between his legs.)
Dave Parker: 2,712 hits (The Cobra won two batting titles in 1977-78, but hurt by poor 1981-82 seasons.)
Doc Cramer: 2,705 (Played from 1929-1948, career slugging of .375 suggests his bat was more of a wand than a bat.)

Say a prayer for these players (Barry Bonds especially) they did so much, but most are thought of so little.

The Minnesota Twins 5.5 Biggest Blunders

2009-12-29T08:52:00.023-06:00

As the Minnesota Twins enter into their 50th season longtime fans know they have made many mistakes, but 5 stand out plus it's a nice round number. Now what's a half mistake? Actually the Twins have made many partial mistakes, but I decided to classify one above all others. I'm not going to rank the blunders because why have one stand out above all others? I'm for equal opportunity in all areas, even blunders, so here they are in the order they occurred:

1) Billy Martin Fired After One Season:
OK, Martin had his issues in his one year managing the Twins. He punched pitcher Dave Boswell multiple times (possibly 40 times!) in a brawl, he threw out Calvin Griffith's son and Hubert H. Humphrey from the locker room after a difficult loss, was secretly dating Griffith's college age daughter during the season and had numerous other run ins with Twins management. He was no prince, but Billy Martin was a winner everywhere he went and Minnesota was no different. He led the Twins to a division championship with a 97-65 record. Rod Carew thanks him for teaching him how to play second base and Jim Kaat said there wasn't a game during that 1969 season the Twins played they felt they wouldn't win. He instilled a winning mentality, but his act had a short shelf life. Three years at best and his message would wear thin. It would have been nice to have gotten 3 years from him especially when he won the division in his only year here. Firing Billy Martin after only 1 season was an obvious blunder.

2) Harmon Killebrew the Kansas City Royal:
Looking at the picture of Killebrew as a Royal in this article it seems odd and I never saw him play in a Twins uniform. Full disclosure dictates the circumstances that made Harmon Killebrew a Kansas City Royal for the 1975 season. As Wikipedia states, "At age 38, he was given the option of staying with the Twins as a coach and batting instructor, managing the Triple A Tacoma Twins, or being released." Harmon Killebrew is the greatest ambassador for baseball the Twins have ever had. You just don't release a future Hall of Famer, don't even give him that option. Offer him a farewell season and move him into the coaching ranks. He's always thought of as Minnesota Twin, but seeing him in a Royal uniform was a blunder that should've been avoided.

3) Calvin Griffith Closes the Door On Rod Carew:
The Minnesota Twins in 1978 were a stingy organization that wasn't relevant on the baseball landscape especially with the dawn of free agency and escalating player salaries approaching. Rod Carew knew this and was in the middle of a contract squabble with Griffith. Griffith spoke at a Lions Club meeting and uttered the following fateful quote, "I'll tell you why we came to Minnesota. It was when we found out you only had 15,000 blacks here. Black people don't go to ballgames, but they'll fill up a rassling ring and put up such a chant it'll scare you to death. We came here because you've got good, hardworking white people here." Very smooth Calvin. Rod Carew decided he'd prefer to offer his Hall of Fame services elsewhere and a trade to the California Angels was worked out. Surprisingly their rift was worked out and once Carew was elected to the Hall of Fame his first phone call was to Calvin Griffith, before he even called his mother. A happy ending, but a major blunder nonetheless.

4) Tom Brunansky Traded for Tommy Herr:
Even my 14 year old mind knew this was a mistake the moment it happened. Let me get this straight. The Twins win the World Series over the Cardinals in 1987. Tom Brunansky, 27 at the time, was a leader on the team and key cog in keeping the team loose. In the 6 years he played for the Twins he would hit somewhere between 25-32 homeruns and have around 85 RBI. His batting average was never great, about .250, but they traded him after only 14 games in 1988. Tommy Herr,32 years old, hated it here and had 1 homerun and 21 RBI and batted .263. He said he felt like an intruder on the team. Andy McPhail, Twins GM at the time, has said this was his worst trade ever. It was a blunder, but at least the Twins traded Herr in the offseason for Shane Rawley...oh never mind.

4.5) David Ortiz is Not Invited Back
This one counts as half a mistake because David Ortiz has been found to have used steroids. So the Twins may have actually had the "real" David Ortiz before the slugging/clutch hitting machine known as David Ortiz showed up in Boston. Did they give up on him too early? Yes. According to Ortiz's autobiography the Twins always wanted him to hit the ball the other way. Boston wanted him to pull the ball. No one saw the enormous future David Ortiz had ahead of him, but to let him go to Boston without a contract offer from the Twins, now that was a blunder.

5.5) Johan Santana is Traded for Spare Parts
Possibly the worst trade in the history of baseball. Yes, strong words, but really look at who the Twins got in return for the best pitcher in the game. No one notable. Carlos Gomez...gone to Milwaukee, but they did get JJ Hardy so we'll judge later, Philip Humber...now with Royals on minor league deal, Kevin Mulvey...sent to Diamondbacks last year, Deolis Guerra...young pitching prospect in Twins minor league system/jury still out. Bill Smith was hoodwinked in this deal big time. Better deals were out there with Boston, it was a blunder not to take one of those.

So there you go. Big blunders from our favorite team. I'm sure there were many more. Comment on the ones I missed and let's hope a few years pass before more are added to this list.

Twins Stats Part II: Hitting With RISP

2009-12-27T15:47:00.012-06:00

There has been much writing in baseball about what constitutes clutch hitting. Some people feel there is no such thing as clutch hitting. I'm not going to go that far, but really isn't clutch hitting how a batter fares when there are runners in scoring position? That's how I define clutch hitting. Now when someone drives in a run with their team leading by 8 runs is that clutch? Probably not as much as when he drives in a run in a one run ballgame. Others take into account what inning the "clutch' hitting took place. You can splice and dice the numbers all you want, but really you can tell who was more clutch by looking at the simple old hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) statistic. As a team the Twins batted .277 with RISP in 2009. Only the Angels, Orioles (really?), Red Sox and Braves were better. Who was the Minnesota Twins most clutch hitter in 2009? There may be a variety of answers, but looking at how Twins players hit with RISP will go a long way in finding the answer. Here are those numbers.

1) Mauer .367
2) Young .313
3) Span .303
4) Morneau .294
5) Kubel .289
6) Punto .276
7) Harris .269
8) Cuddyer .267
9) Gomez .247
10) Cabrera .222
11) Crede .198
12) JJ Hardy .185

JJ Hardy hit only .221 in 2008 with RISP so the Twins are hoping that pattern changes. A third poor RISP season wouldn't be a charm. Delmon Young behind only Mauer? The numbers don't lie, but when were all those big base hits? As a team the Twins posted some remarkable numbers in certain situations with runners on base and in general hitting situations as well. Some that stood out:

In innings 1-6 the Twins batted .283 trailing only the Angels in the majors.
From the 7th inning on they batted a more modest .255 tied for 9th best in the majors.
With the bases empty Twins batted .283 which was 3rd best behind Yankees and Dodgers.
With 2 outs and runners in scoring positions Twins batted a middle of the road .243 tied for 11th in the majors.
The Twins led baseball in bases loaded situations by hitting a whopping .355 which created 147 RBI. Only the Brewers and Red Sox created more RBI in bases loaded situations.

These numbers are even more amazing when you consider the non-hitting likes of Nick Punto, Delmon Young, Joe Crede and Brendan Harris saw ample playing time last year. Say what you want, but the Twins usually roll the dice and come up winners with the players they plug in. The players aren't flashy, but they contribute.

Minnesota Twins Pitches Per Plate Appearance

2009-12-26T18:11:00.014-06:00

Patient teams usually win more games than teams jumping at pitches early in the count. This is no surprise. The book Moneyball brought this thought into the mainstream. I was wondering what the Minnesota Twins looked like when you just look at each player's pitches per plate appearance. Here are the results with plate appearances in parenthesis:

1) Nick Punto 4.20 (440)
2) Joe Mauer 4.18 (606)
3) Jason Kubel 4.04 (577)
4) Jose Morales 4.04 (134)
5) JJ Hardy 3.98 (465)
6) Denard Span 3.91 (676)
7) Michael Cuddyer 3.88 (650)
8) Brendan Harris 3.85 (454)
(league avg 3.84)
9) Alexi Casilla 3.77 (256)
10) Matt Tolbert 3.73 (231)
11) Justin Morneau 3.70 (590)
12) Joe Crede 3.69 (367)
13) Orlando Cabrera 3.68 (260)
14) Carlos Gomez 3.55 (349)
15) Delmon Young 3.50 (416)

JJ Hardy will be a welcome addition if he can work the count as he did last season. His career pitches per plate appearances is an above average 3.87 so that trend should continue. Nick Punto posted a career high last season at 4.20. His career average is 3.97 so there may be a slight regression for him. Joe Mauer also had a career high, but it was his 3rd straight season of seeing 4 or more pitches per plate appearance and that should continue with him seeing even fewer fastballs next year. Also, Jason Kubel showed increased maturity by pushing his pitches looked at per plate appearance to 4+ last season for the first time. All in all interesting numbers to look at, especially with the Hardy addition.

Put Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame

2009-12-21T06:26:00.008-06:00

This is a Twins blog, but I felt Harold Baines deserved someone saying that he should be in the Hall of Fame. He won't make it this year and may never make it in, but his career numbers are at least worth a second look.

Harold Baines played 22 years.

Hits: 2,866 (40th all time)
HR: 384 (54th all time)
RBI: 1,628 (28th all time)
Batting Avg: .289
OBP: .356
SLG: .465
OPS+: 120

Hall of Famers have been put in with far less accomplishments than Baines, but let's look at his hits and RBI. Of the 39 players ahead of Baines on the all time hits list only 3 are not in the Hall of Fame: Barry Bonds (not eligible yet/steroids), Craig Biggio (not eligible/will get in) and Pete Rose (banned from baseball). The 4 players behind him on the all time hits list are in the Hall of Fame. If Harold Baines had 134 more hits in his career he'd already be in the hall. 134 hits is a thin margin for not voting someone in the Hall of Fame. Harold Baines is basically the White Sox equivalent of Bert Blyleven for Twins fans. Too close to not let in. Looking at the all time RBI list and the 28 players ahead of him, all but 8 are in the Hall of Fame. Those eight are: Sammy Sosa (not eligible/steroids), Gary Sheffield (not eligible/active), Frank Thomas (not eligible/will get in), Alex Rodroguez and Manny Ramirez (both still active/steroids), Ken Griffey Jr. (still active), Rafael Palmeiro (steroids). Harold Baines may not have always been an upper level superstar, but don't let a player like him who achieved his career numbers the "right/clean" way be left out of the Hall of Fame.

The Case For Dan Uggla

2009-12-19T20:32:00.016-06:00

Dan Uggla may still be traded by the Florida Marlins. Putting him into a Twins uniform would help shore up second base (finally) and provide even more pop to an already good lineup. Uggla has positives and negatives like we all do. Here are his:

Positives:

He'll be 30 years old next March

He's averaged 32 homeruns a year, 95 RBI and an OPS+ of 114 in his four year career.

Uggla's averaged 75 walks a year and had a career high of 92 last season in a down year for him.

He's durable, thus far in career he has played 156-159 games a year.

Triple slash for career is: .257/.344/.482

Runs Created each year were: 102, 103, 100, 97. Last year's 97 was again in a down year. He is a very good run producer. Joe Mauer led the AL with 138 Runs Created last year. Next for the Twins were Kubel and Span at 101 Runs Created each. Getting around 100 runs created from 2B would help fans forget the hitting of the Harris/Punto/Casilla three headed monster.
His Wins Above Replacement statistic over his career is 2.6-4.7. The Twins had the worse hitting second basemen last season and it wasn't even close. Getting 2-4 wins from 2B would be an upgrade.

Negatives

Uggla's obvious problem is he is required to field a ball that is hit to him. Yes, he committed 3 errors in the All Star Game 2 years ago, but how inept is he with the glove? His UZR/150 (Runs Above Average per 150 games) for his career is -2.9. Close to average. It's been a rocky road though. His UZR/150 for his four years are: +7.1, -11.3, +2.0 and -9.6 last season. Not great, but also too up and down for the heavy criticism he receives for his poor fielding. It is fair to say Uggla is average at best with the glove with tendencies to look very bad at times throughout a 162 game season.
Dan Uggla strikes out a lot. He will strike out 150-160 times a year. His strikeout percentage last season was 26.6% when the league average was 20%.

Conclusion

Getting Dan Uggla's bat in the lineup would help the Twins offense tremendously. Uggla's glove, while suspect, doesn't merit not doing the trade. His fielding will not cost the Twins more runs than he'll bring in with his bat. Depending on what the Marlins want I would endorse the Twins making the trade, even if that means trading Nick Blackburn. With all this said I will still be surprised if the Twins make the trade. They don't jump into the deep water often and have been too successful staying in the shallow end of the pool. But it would be fun to see them try the deep end once in awhile.

Greatest Twins Manager

2009-12-18T06:35:00.024-06:00

Measuring a manager's greatness is difficult when you don't have many World Series trophies in your possession to tip the scales. Tom Kelly is the only Twins manager to carry those trophies, but he also has a losing record as manager at 1,140-1,248. So who will it be? Yes, the Twins have had many managers, but really the debate about who is the best in team history comes down to Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire. Sorry Sam Mele and Billy Martin, you just didn't have enough time in the manager position to enter the debate. I put together a rough point system that graded out each manager based on team record and post season success. The points were awarded like this:

-2 points for a season below .500

0 points for a .500 season

+2 points for a season above .500

+4 points for winning division

+6 points for winning ALDS

+8 points for winning ALCS

+12 points for winning World Series.

When comparing the years that Kelly and Gardenhire have managed there is a problem in that Kelly never had the opportunity to manage a team in the ALDS. This is problematic and may have given him enough points to top Gardenhire . Tom Kelly ended up with 38 points and Ron Gardenhire has also accumulated 38 points thus far. I guess they are equal, right? Maybe not. Kelly had 10 losing seasons in the 15 years he managed the Twins. He did win the World Series twice which obviously is where most of his 38 points came from. Ron Gardenhire on the other hand has had only 1 losing season in the 8 years he's managed, but he's only won 1 playoff series and that was in his first year. What do fans want? Continued competitive teams or 2 World Series championships along with many 90+ loss seasons? It is fairly clear that if Gardenhire continues to manage he will pass Kelly in my silly point system (probably next year), but without a World Series championship by Gardenhire many Twins fans will always consider Tom Kelly as the greatest Twins manager.

Denard Span's Additional Responsiblity

2009-12-17T06:28:00.013-06:00

With Denard Span taking over the centerfield job for the Minnesota Twins, he needs to adjust to covering more ground and how to play centerfield in a new ballpark. It will be a learning process that he will successfully navigate I'm sure. Some people are worried about his defense in centerfield, not I. What I'm concerned about is that he will have to play outfield for Delmon Young as well because as anyone who's watched Twins baseball the past two seasons knows when Delmon Young is in leftfield odd misplays are lurking around every corner. When Carlos Gomez played centerfield he went after flyballs without regard for his fellow outfielders. Delmon Young knew his limitations and usually backed away letting the speedy/reckless Gomez go after the ball. Span is going to have to continue the tradition of carrying Young in the outfield. He will have to cover the left center power alley, catch those short flyballs between them and be the first to get to balls that go the wall. This doesn't even factor in the work Span will have to do because of Michael Cuddyer's average to below average defense. I could site defensive metrics that put the Twins defense into numbers that could be analyzed and processed, but the plain truth is Denard Span better be ready to run...a lot and quickly adapt to the new surroundings of Target Field because the Twins and especially Delmon Young are counting on him.

Change Can Be Good...Even In Baseball

2009-12-16T06:38:00.008-06:00

Commissioner Bud Selig is forming a 14 member committee to examine various on-field issues in baseball. Names like Terry Ryan, Tony LaRussa, Jim Leyland, Mike Scioscia, and Joe Torre — as well as a former manager, the Hall of Famer Frank Robinson are part of the group. What issues will they look at changing? I have my own I would like changed:

Shorten the season back to the original 154 game schedule and include 10 day/night doubleheaders per team. Let's have baseball end in October like it should.

Raise the pitcher's mound by 5 inches to the height it was at from 1903 through 1968. It's time to give the pitchers some advantage back.

Eliminate batters stepping out of the actual batter's box. Charge a hitter with a strike if they don't stay in the box. Also stop the adjusting of batting gloves. Once gloves are on they must be left in place.

Limit conferences by the catcher to 2 per inning. Jose Molina of the Yankees should have his name attached to this rule after his ridiculously repetitious mound visits in the postseason.

Become more the like the NFL in regards to the look of uniforms. Players should not be allowed to have the baggy pants, they don't need to show any sock, but having excessive amounts of pant piling up around the shoe should be done away with. Also umpires should enforce having players tuck their shirts in. The Jose Mijares look is not flattering and yes, we know Brandon Inge you were hit by the pitch in game 163 versus the Twins, but did it really hit you or did it hit your billowing shirt?

Those are a few of the changes I would make, I think all can be put into place, but the doubleheaders and changing back to 154 games would be met with fierce opposition because of the loss of money by the player's union and the owners so that has no chance of happening. The others? Let's give them a try.

Liriano's New Role

2009-12-15T06:42:00.012-06:00

Remember Francisco Liriano in 2006, he went 12-3 with a 2.16 and a K/9 rate of 10.7. The Twins were all set. Liriano would anchor their rotation for years and become the dominate pitcher the Twins have lacked for years. Well, that didn't happen. Francisco Liriano has struggled mightily as a starter since coming back from Tommy John surgery. His numbers since the surgery are: 38 game starts (43 games total), 212.2 innings pitched, ERA of 5.13 and 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. Not effective, not even close. The alarming ERA of 5.13 gives the team little chance to win. Time to go in a new direction: Set up man for the set up men. Starting pitchers go about 6 innings/100 pitches if they have a good game. That leaves a third of the game in the hands of the bullpen. Guerrier, Mijares and Nathan usually take the 8th and 9th innings. Liriano should move into that 7th inning role. Something in the Phil Hughes mold. Last season Liriano showed he could dominate in short stretches that usually occurred in the first inning. On pitches 1-15 in each of his appearances he faced 146 batters last season. Those batters hit only .205/.282/.342. He struck out 42 of those 146 hitters. Starting with 16th pitch and onward he allows all hitters to perform like Denard Span. If I had to guess, the Twins are probably thinking of a middle to late inning role for him. It may suit him well, he throws hard, has a limited focus and then calls it a night. Francisco Liriano of 2006 is gone. As fans we need to readjust our thinking and see him as still valuable, but in the bullpen.

Another Baseball Statistic? No Thanks!

2009-12-14T06:34:00.018-06:00

Yesterday Fangraphs came out with a new statistic called wRC+. I love Fangraphs and visit their site numerous times a day. They are good at what they do, which is mining the numbers for trends. wRC+ is weighted Runs Created based on weighted on base average. Really wRC+ is Fangraphs version of OPS+. Do we need another statistic to measure hitting, pitching and defense? Certainly not. Bill James, the godfather of sabermetrics, agrees. In 1981 (28 years ago!) he said, "The world needs another new baseball offense rating system like Custer needed more Indians." Perfectly said. We are now at the point where statistics are being created just so people can say they created a baseball statistic. Congratulations, you have invented a stat you and a handful of others on your block use and understand. If you think Joe Torre and Ron Gardenhire are plugging your stat into their decision making process, think again. Tom Tango wrote "The Book" which is subtitled playing baseball by the percentages. Granted I struggled in math growing up, but getting through that book made my brain ache and wonder how many college credits I would get for reading it. After reading it I was left with the question: Are managers using all this data? Some of the data they do use, but a lot of it is filler for books and articles. Baseball involves people who make wise and not so wise decisions. Nick Punto is ranked as one of the best baserunners in the American League, that didn't help him as he ran through the stop sign in Game 3 of the ALDS and was thrown out going back to third. Baseball is fun because of its unpredictability. Remember, the very worst team will win 25% of the time. That breeds unpredictability. Don't be confused, I love looking at statistics and not just the traditional ones, the advanced statistics as well, but the time has come. New statistics are clouding the game in a haze. Let's analyze baseball with what we have. Usually we come to the same conclusion anyway. Why take so many paths getting there ?

Why Stop at $120 Million?

2009-12-13T06:01:00.029-06:00

In 1981 the Los Angeles Lakers offered a 25 year contract to Magic Johnson worth $25 million dollars. He gladly signed the contract. It was a brilliant move by the Lakers to lock up a superstar player before his career truly took off. The Minnesota Twins should take a page from the Lakers playbook when negotiating with Joe Mauer this offseason. Don't even come to the table with a 5, 6 or even a 7 year contract. Yes, they will have to pay Joe $20 million a year. So offer him a 10 year $200 million dollar contract. Forget $100 or $120 million. Go big! Joe Mauer is worth it. In an age of athletes behaving selfishly and like spoiled children Joe Mauer is squeaky clean, puts the team first and is the ultimate home town boy story, which the Twins love. Statistically he has won the batting title 3 of the past 4 seasons, has a career OBP of .408 and a SLG of .483. Mauer's OPS+ last season was 170 (meaning he was 70% better than the average hitter) and for his career it's 136. Simply, Joe Mauer is the best hitter to ever put on a Twins uniform in addition to being the best defensive catcher in team history. Let's have fun and look into the future. The Baseball Think Factory came up with a ZiPS career projection for Joe Mauer:

Bat. Avg: .318 (Cochrane .320, Berra .285, Bench .267) Mauer=2nd

OBP: .403 (Cochrane .419, Berra .348, Bench .342) Mauer=2nd

SLG: .477 (Berra .482, Cochrane .478, Bench .476) Mauer=3rd

Games: 2306 (Bench 2,158, Berra 2,120, Cochrane 1,482) Mauer=1st

AB: 8616 (Bench 7,658, Berra 7,555, Cochrane 5,169) Mauer=1st

Runs: 1377 (Berra 1,175, Bench 1,091, Cochrane 1,041) Mauer=1st

Hits: 2743 (Berra 2,150, Bench 2,048, Cochrane 1,652) Mauer=1st

Doubles: 491 (Bench 381, Cochrane 333, Berra 321) Mauer=1st

Triples: 43 (Cochrane 64, Berra 49, Bench 24) Mauer=3rd

HR: 263 (Bench 389, Berra 358, Cochrane 119) Mauer=3rd

RBI: 1296 (Berra 1,430, Bench 1,376, Cochrane 832) Mauer=3rd

BB: 1265 (Bench 891, Cochrane 857, Berra 704) Mauer=1st

OPS+: 133 (Cochrane 128, Bench 126, Berra 125) Mauer=1st

How do those numbers stack up against the all time greatest catchers? Statistics guru Rob Neyer has stated his top 3 catchers all time are:

1. Mickey Cochrane

2. Johnny Bench

3. Yogi Berra

Compare their career numbers to the numbers Mauer is projected at. Mauer's career rank is listed last in bold. At the very least he will be one of the top three catchers of all time, if not the best. Is he worth $200 million? Of course he is.

Old News: New Uniforms and a New Font (Really?)

2009-12-12T06:38:00.017-06:00

I like the new uniforms. I really do, but I have adjusted my thinking slightly since they were unveiled. After stopping at the Twins Pro Shop I was looking at the new Twins logo with the small changes to the lettering. This is most evident on the S in Twins. I was left, as I looked at both logos side by side, with the question why make such a minute, almost unnoticeable change? How many fans will purchase a new uniform because of a small font change? Believe me I'm glad a more radical change didn't take place, but still a puzzling decision. Bringing the old 1961 home uniform back was a wise choice. I'm thinking that uniform will soon become the Twins' primary home uniform. I think Bill Smith made reference to that possibly happening because of the strong, positive reaction it received from the players. I may be in the minority, but I like the new road uniforms. The navy blue lettering looks better than red and the script of Minnesota is from the jackets players and coaches wore in the 60s and the 70s. Finally, the logo is classier looking with the addition of "Minnesota Baseball Club." Far too many teams change uniforms every 3 years it seems, in hockey it seems they add a new uniform every 3 months. I like how the Yankees have left their uniforms alone for decades. Let's hope the Twins leave their uniforms alone for another 20+ years and win a World Series in the new duds. OK, you're right...just win a playoff series first.

Winter Meetings...Yawn

2009-12-11T07:05:00.006-06:00

I was hoping for some movement from the Twins regarding the 3B and 2B positions at the Winter Meetings. Of course nothing happened. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark DeRosa and Dan Uggla were all rumored to possibly be coming here. I realize they could still be a part of the team, but I will just have to get my mind used to the fact that a 3B/2B combination of Joe Crede and Nick Punto will be the more likely option. Beige has always been the color of choice for the Twins.

The truth of the matter is if Joe Crede could give the Twins 120 games at third base he would be more than adequate with his glove alone. I'm not sure I've seen a better fielding Twins third basemen. In only 84 games his UZR/150 was 23.4 which placed him 4th best in the majors among third basemen who played 3B a minimum of 100 innings. His bat would obviously have to produce at a greater rate than his .289 on base percentage from last season. Unfortunately I have little faith in Crede's back. It's not his fault. Bad backs have a way of not getting better, but If I had a crystal ball getting Crede for 120 games would be the way I would go if I were the Twins.

Orlando Cabrera Will Be Missed

2009-11-07T05:39:00.011-06:00

JJ Hardy will replace Orlando Cabrera at shortstop for the Minnesota Twins next season. Baseball can be very cruel. Game 163 hero one moment to unemployed the next moment. I know, Cabrera's 35 years old now. His range at shortstop was an issue along with his arm, but I grew to enjoy watching Orlando Cabrera play baseball. He came to a team that took pride in their vanilla personality and interjected a dose of enthusiasm and plain old fun. His laughter on the field was a welcome sight because it broke up the business atmosphere that permeates most games. In addition and most amazing, Cabrera could actually make Carlos Gomez stop talking on the bench and listen simply because Cabrera never stopped talking himself. He was light hearted, a very entertaining interview and a team leader in the clubhouse. It can't be forgotten that Orlando Cabrera did contribute greatly to the Twins winning the division. His bat came alive down the stretch. He rarely walked, but batted .286 in September and a blistering .440 in twenty-five October at bats. Game 163 had him doubling off Curtis Granderson late in the game to save Joe Nathan and the team and he also hit a big home run to put the Twins up briefly in the 7th inning. I know having a 35 year old shortstop would be a poor baseball decision, but I'll miss the flavor Orlando Cabrera brought to the Twins in 2009.

Minnesota Twins Greatest Offensive Season #46: Tony Oliva 1966

2009-10-29T18:15:00.019-05:00

Tony Oliva's 1966 Season

AB: 622 (3rd in AL)
Hits: 191 (1st in AL)
Doubles: 32 (4th in AL)
Triples: 7
Home Runs: 25
RBI: 87 (10th in AL)
BB: 42
K: 72
BA: .307 (2nd in AL)
OBP: .353 (9th in AL)
SLG: .502 (6th in AL)
OPS: .854 (6th in AL)
OPS+: 136 (46th best in team history)

In 1966 The Twins were unable to repeat their World Series run of the previous season and finished a disappointing 89-73 in second place and nine games behind the Baltimore Orioles. Only two Twins batted over .260 in 1966: Harmon Killebrew at .281 and Tony Oliva with .307. Despite ranking high in many of the American League statistical categories and leading the AL in hits for the third year in a row, Oliva slumped mightily down the stretch. He took a batting average in the .320s into August, but endured a 5 for 41 slump in August. 1966 was another year of personal accolades for Oliva. He won his first and only Gold Glove of his career for his play in right field, he was a member of the American League All Star team and came in 6th in the MVP voting.

Minnesota Twins Greatest Offensive Season #47: Bob Allison 1967

2009-10-27T06:41:00.032-05:00

Bob Allison's 1967 Season

AB: 496
Hits: 128
Doubles: 21
Triples: 6
Home Runs: 24 (7th in AL)
RBI: 75
BB: 74 (7th in AL)
K: 114 (6th in AL)
BA: .258
OBP: .356 (10th in AL)
SLG: .470 (7th in AL)
OPS: .826 (9th in AL)
OPS+: 135 (47th best in team history)

Involved in one of the closest pennant races of all time the Minnesota Twins finished second one game behind the Boston Red Sox with a 91-71 record in 1967. The statistics right handed batter Bob Allison put up in 1967 may not seem that remarkable in the offense orientated era baseball currently finds itself in, but they stand out in Twins' history. The Twins as a team in 1967 batted .240 and that was third best in the American League behind Detroit at .243 and Boston with .255. The average American League team batting average in 1967 was .236, a far cry from the AL average of .267 for 2009. 1967 was close to the bottoming out for hitters or the pinnacle for pitchers depending on how you look at it. In 1968 the American League average for batting was .230 and the result was the mound was lowered to reduce some of the advantage pitchers had and the strike zone was reduced. All of these considerations need to be looked at when analyzing Bob Allison's terrific 1967 season. Bob Allison retired after the 1970 season and unfortunately later contracted ataxia, a neurological disorder that affects muscle coordination. He died in 1995 at 60 years of age. Following his death, the Minnesota Twins created the Bob Allison Award for the Twins player who best exemplifies determination, hustle, tenacity, competitive spirit and leadership both on and off the field.

Minnesota Twins Greatest Offensive Season #48: Justin Morneau 2009

2009-10-25T07:54:00.015-05:00

Justin Morneau's 2009 season:

AB: 508
Hits: 139
Doubles: 31
Triples: 1
Home Runs: 30
RBI: 100
BB: 72
K: 86
BA: .274
OBP: .363
SLG: .516
OPS: .879
OPS+: 135 (48th best in team history)

Despite batting just .201 in 174 at bats after the All Star break Justin Morneau still had the 48th best season at the plate in team history. Fans may disagree since they can still recall many disappointing at bats Morneau had in the second half of the season in addition with his missing the last three weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With that said, his first half statistics are what carries his season into the top 50 in team history. In that first half Morneau batted: .311/.390/.575 with 21 home runs, 70 RBI and 44 walks. Fans are looking for Justin to put together two halves of a season that each look similar to the first half of the 2009 season.

Minnesota Twins Greatest Individual Offensive Season #49: Earl Battey 1963

2009-10-21T20:18:00.019-05:00

Earl Battey's 1963 season:

AB: 508
Hits: 145
Doubles: 17
Triples: 1
Home Runs: 26
RBI: 84
BB: 61
K: 75
BA: .285
OBP: .369
SLG: .476
OPS: .845
OPS+: 134 (49th best in team history)

The 1963 Minnesota Twins hit 225 home runs, which was the highest total in the history of baseball to that point. The team finished in 3rd place with a 91-70 record 13 games out of first place. Earl Battey will be remembered as the first catcher in Twins history. He played in 805 of the Twins' first 970 games. The 1963 season is Battey's only appearance in the top 50 hitting seasons in team history. In 1963 he was an All Star and came in 7th in the MVP voting. In his career Battey was a 3 time Gold Glove winner and 4 time All Star. In the 1965 All Star game at Metropolitian Stadium he received the most votes of any American League All Star. Author Jim Thielman, in his book The Cool of the Evening which details the 1965 season for the Twins, said, "Battey was one of the first players to use an ear-flap on his batting helmet to protect his face. He twice suffered broken cheekbones when hit by pitches, so he began wearing the special batting helmet in 1962. Today, all players wear such helmets." He played with the Twins until he was released in November of 1967. Earl Battey died on November 15, 2003 at the age of 68 from cancer.

Ranking the Top 50 Individual Offensive Seasons by a Minnesota Twin

2009-10-20T21:17:00.016-05:00

With the inaugural season at Target Field next year what has been rarely mentioned is that next year will be the 50th season of Minnesota Twins baseball. Many outstanding players have put on the varied uniforms of the Twins over the years, but I felt it was worth exploring who has had the 50 greatest performances in a season at the plate as a Minnesota Twin since 1961. How did I choose to rank the players? There was only one criteria for being included on the list: a player needed 500 or more plate appearances in a season. Once that had been determined I looked at the OPS and OPS+ seasonal numbers of that player. I went back and forth on using OPS or the OPS+ stat as a way to rank players, but decided on OPS+ because it ranks a player based how he did in comparison to the league in that particular season. Those unfamiliar with OPS+ will see that an average player in the league in terms of his OPS (OBP + SLG) will get an OPS+ score of 100. If a player had a year that was 20% above the league average in OPS his OPS+ number would be 120. It is very simple and lets you look at how well a player did within his year. A player who had an OPS of .870 in 1965 with an OPS+ of 141 had a better year than Justin Morneau did in 2008 when he had an OPS of .873 and an OPS+ of 137. The player in 1965 was 41% better than league average while Morneau was a close second at 37%. The difficulty of how hard it was to hit or how easy it was to hit within a season is flushed out with the OPS+ statistic and despite Morneau having the higher OPS it was easier for Morneau to hit in the 2008 American League that it was for our unnamed player in 1965 which happens to be Tony Oliva. I'm sure others will have their opinions and differing methods of ranking so please feel free to question me and leave a comment. I will introduce each player starting off with the 50th best season and hope to get to the top OPS+ individual Twins season before the 2010 baseball schedule begins.

Minnesota Twins Greatest Individual Offensive Season #50:Tony Oliva 1969

2009-10-20T20:35:00.019-05:00

Tony Oliva's 1969 season:

AB: 637
Hits: 197 (league leader)
Doubles: 39 (league leader)
Triples: 4
Home Runs: 24
RBI: 101
BB: 45
Runs Created: 107 (9th best in AL)
K: 66
BA: .309
OBP: .355
SLG: .496
OPS: .851
OPS+: 133 (50th best in team history)

In 1969 the Minnesota Twins went 97-65 and won the American League Western Division. Tony Oliva was third in the AL with a batting average of .309, was named an All Star and finished a distant 15th in the MVP voting. Despite winning 97 games the Twins fell to the eventual World Series champions Baltimore Orioles in the League Championship Series 3-0 in games. Oliva's bat was not the problem in the ALCS. He batted .385/.429/.769 with one home run in the series. Tony Oliva's regular season OPS+ of 133 was 33% better than than the average hitter in baseball in 1969 and secures the 50th best season a Minnesota Twin has had at the plate.

After Further Review, Keep Joe Nathan

2009-10-15T07:50:00.012-05:00

Watching a closer destroy a well pitched game is a painful experience. Joe Nathan did just that against the New York Yankees in the ALDS, but feelings of anger and disappointment are clouding what Joe Nathan has done as a closer for the Minnesota Twins. He's been an outstanding, shutdown closer in his career, but the last month of this season was a highwire act to say the least. With that said here are his statistics:

ERA of 2.10 for the season

Season WHIP of 0.93

K/BB ratio of 4.05, nearly what is was in 2007 (4.05) and 2008 (4.11)

Opponents batted .171 against him this year with .160 avg vs. lefties and .181 vs. righties

Nathan blew 5 saves this year, 6 last year and 4 the year before. Not a spike upwards

Joe Nathan will be 35 years old at the start of next season, his ERA the last 3 months of this season rose consistently: 1.69, 2.46 and finally 4.76 in September. Certainly these are strikes against him. In addition, Twins fans are frustrated with his lack of poise and ability to get anyone out in a Yankee uniform this season and in past seasons. This may be a mental hurdle he never overcomes in his career, but should he be traded? It seems that would be an overly emotional reaction to Nathan's pitching performance at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs. Behind Mariano Rivera who is better as a closer than Joe Nathan in the American League? No one really. Unless a trade is offered that really helps the Twins get better and involves real major league players and not highly thought of prospects Joe Nathan should remain a Twin. With that said a future replacement should start to be thought of. Anthony Slama may be just that pitcher.

Just Not Good Enough

2009-10-12T07:19:00.005-05:00

Most fans were ready for the Twins to lose to the Yankees in the ALDS after the Yankees went up 2-1 in game 3 of the series Sunday night. Carl Pavano had pitched well and it was time to look toward next year. Then Nick Punto slapped a double to left field and it appeared more of that old dome magic was in works. Not so fast. Denard Span promptly hit a chopper that never appeared to have enough steam to get through the infield and Derek Jeter easily gloved it before going into centerfield. Punto, the Piranha, had other thoughts and kept running with his head down. He was reacting to the crowd noise he said which he felt indicated Span's hit went through. Nick never put his head up and ran through Scott Ullger's stop sign at third base. Eventually stopping and sliding to the turf about 20 feet from home. He was easily thrown out at third base and makes what has to be one of the worst baserunning blunders in Twins history. That speaks volumes considering Carlos Gomez is on the team. Punto's boneheaded play put a dagger into Twins fans' hearts and made an acceptable loss extremely bitter. It made the Twins appear desperate and junior varsity like which comes off as pathetic when your playing the 103 win New York Yankees. The whole series showed the Twins were just not good enough to advance in the playoffs. Unless serious moves are made to upgrade the team the Twins will win the division next year, but they will watch the Yankees celebrate again and this time it will be in 40 degree weather at Target Field.

Instant Classic

2009-10-08T17:02:00.027-05:00

It was simply the most intense and supremely entertaining game I have ever witnessed in person. There is not a close second and most likely never will be. The Minnesota Twins defeated the Detroit Tigers 6-5 in the tiebreaker game for the Central Division crown of 2009. An unbelievable feat considering the puzzle pieces this season required the Twins to fit together. After Tuesday's instant classic between the Twins and Tigers my mind continues replaying what it saw with the understanding that what was witnessed was undoubtedly the finest Twins game played since Dan Gladden touched homeplate securing the 1991 World Series for the hometown team.

Words can convey meaning lost to those that were eyewitness to an event. This game is a rare gem because those that were there and in front of the television know what they saw was impressionable on a grand scale. Those folks don't need words to understand what they saw. It will remain with them for a duration of time that is measurable in months, years or a lifetime. I was fortunate enough to sit down the right field line with my dad going through a game that was a microcosism of the season itself. Soon I was resigning myself to losing yet again in a tiebreaking game. Then in the next instant be jumping up and down and giving high fives to fans I had never met before after Orlando Cabrera gloved a line drive and doubled off Curtis Granderson from first base allowing the Twins to escape an inescapable dilemma without allowing a run. From that high to the low of Alexi Casilla's 10th inning ill-fated dash towards home only to be thrown out. This prolonged a game that was agonizingly ulcer inducing and yet you knew you were watching a classic ballgame. Before either of these incidents there was the two run home run off the bat of Cabrera that put the Twins in the lead by a run by the score of 4-3. I leaned over to my dad after his mini blast into the first row of seats in left field and said "I don't want to have to watch the last 6 outs with only a one run lead." I need not worry. Matt Guerrier allowed a home run on his second pitch in the top of the 8th setting up the dramatics I already mentioned. One play already forgotten is the remarkable play Nick Punto made with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the 12th inning. Everyone through clinched fists was hoping for a double play. Instead Punto caught a high chopper from Brandon Inge deep at his position of second base, knew a double play was not guaranteed, and fired a perfect throw to Mauer for the force at home all in one motion. A brilliant play by Punto because of the quick thinking and physical skills required in that tense moment. A game changing play all instant classics have imbedded within them.

It was a classic, but if you were in the Metrodome the tension, emotion, and utter joy upon actually winning and watching the Twins run around the field and high five fans was something to be savored. It was amazing to be there and be a part of it. Everywhere grown adults were jumping around, screaming, and high-fiving each other. Let the Yankees have their corporate, well paid superstars who are suppose to come through in every clutch situation. Perfection is expected in New York. Having an imperfect player like Matt Tolbert contribute mightily to victory last Tuesday makes the win more sweet. Those unexpected events in baseball are what keeps fans watching. They want to see what they haven't seen before and Twins fans most certainly did when their team defeated the Tigers for the 2009 Central Division crown.

Baseball That Matters

2009-10-06T07:59:00.009-05:00

When a new Minnesota Twins season schedule is published one's eye usually goes to the start of the season and who do the Twins open up against, when and where is the All Star Game and then your eyes go to that last series of the year. Who are the Twins playing and more importantly will those end of the season games matter? Watching the Twins take on the Royals in front of a sold out Metrodome meant the stadium was closing its doors to baseball soon, but more importantly it meant those games were meaningful. As a fan you want your team to be competitive, but ultimately playing important baseball at the end of the season is all that really matters to you. You want the feeling of watching those same players you've watched night after night keep playing until that last out of the year because that represents a team effort worthy of a possible playoff berth. Observing the next fresh, new and exciting young prospect play games as regulars sit the bench while the leaves change color means your team is playing out the dreaded string. Not the scenario you envisioned when that season schedule first hit your hands. The Minnesota Twins have teetered on the edge of playing games that have mattered very little this year, but when your team is playing game number 163 for the right to go to the playoffs you have to conclude this season has been worthy of praise. Today the Twins will go to the payoffs or fall short by a game for the second year in row. Losing would be disappointing, but every Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals fan along with each person representing a team not playoff bound would give up a week's worth of sleep to be in this tiebreaking game. Win or lose this season has been unexpectedly entertaining and that is all anybody wanted when the season began.

Everyday Eddie Moves On

2009-09-26T22:17:00.048-05:00

Fun loving "Everyday" Eddie Guardado is finally retiring. The long road for his rubber left arm has come to a close. "I think its time to go home and be a daddy," Guardado said after announcing his probable retirement at the end of this season. Becoming a full time dad to his three children aged 4 through 12 will bring an end to his 17 year career which began in 1993. Guardado is a character that many teams seemed to have had once upon a time ago, but characters today in baseball are in short supply. Guardado's always been known for practical jokes. The kind that keep teams loose. He'd move players cars, put peanut better in their shoes and hot sauce in their jocks. Once while with the Twins Guardado took David Ortiz's shorts. Ortiz wondered aloud where they went and Guardado told him to check the freezer. They were folded nicely, but freezing them was not enough for Guardado. He had smeared peanut butter on the inside of the shorts before freezing them. Ortiz was so pleased to have his shorts back and thawed out he never saw the peanut butter coming. As is tradition a prankster must be paid back and an unnamed Twin once took all of Guardado's belongings in his locker and bolted them down onto the floor: glove, spikes, shower shoes and even his toothbrush. It took 20 minutes to unbolt the items while Paul Molitor, Terry Steinbach and Bob Tewksbury laughed at his predicament. I'm sure it was a prank Eddie Guardado was envious of...envious that he didn't come up with it first.

For those that have a long memory go back in time to 1993 when Eddie Guardado was first called up to the Minnesota Twins. The Twins were currently going full circle in the standings: worst to first and back to worst again and again and then again. Guardado came to the Twins in 1993 as a young pitcher who had a bad case of acne. The kind of acne that keeps a 16 year old from seeing the outside world on the weekends. The acne went away, but Eddie remained a Twin through 2003. In the beginning the Twins wanted him to be a starter and he did as he was told starting 25 games on those disastrous Twins teams in 1993 and 1994. He didn't have a starters mentality or the arm strength and settled into the bullpen pitching in middle relief and saving the occasional game. In 2002 the Twins were threatened with contraction and Guardado was given the task of closing games on what could have been the final assemblage of players called the Minnesota Twins. Everyday Eddie took to the closers role better than I and many others expected that season and he saved a superlative and league leading 45 games. Without undue hyperbole Eddie Guardado and the 2002 Minnesota Twins literally saved the franchise that year. They won 94 games, their division and played baseball that mattered. A feat Twins fans had not seen since 1992. If you witnessed Eddie G pitch you know it was never easy for him. He desired and even thrived on the pressure of extracting himself from an inescapable situation. Usually those situations were of his own volition. Never was his rollercoaster ride to a save more in effect than in the crucial Game 5 of the 2002 ALDS versus the Oakland A's. Brad Radke had pitched his greatest game as a Twin on the road that afternoon going 6.2 bulldog-like innings. The Twins carried a perilous 2-1 lead into the top of the ninth when AJ Pierzynski hit a soon to be vital 2 run home run and the Twins pushed the lead to 5-1. Guardado pitched the final inning trying to close the door. The door resisted and his line for the ninth inning was an unsightly 4 hits, 3 runs and 1 home run given up. It was an inning that resembled a car wreck. You know you shouldn't look, but at the same time can't resist. Mercifully for Twins players and fans Guardado coaxed Ray Durham into hitting a foul ball flyout to Denny Hocking to eliminate the 103 win Athletics and put the Twins into the Amercan League Championship series. In 2003 Eddie saved 41 games, but the Twins probably felt like most fans did. The high wire act could only go for so long before crashing down and Everyday Eddie moved along to Seattle. He hopscotched from Seattle, Cincinnati and then to the Rangers. Last season the Twins tried saving a beleaguered bullpen by trading for Guardado late in the season, but it felt forced like a blind date. Eddie G knew he wasn't the same guy who saved 45 and 41 games in 2002 and 2003. He had a 7.71 ERA in 7 innings for the Twins and went back to the Rangers last off season. On Monday Eddie Guardado made his 906th career appearance tying him with Cy Young on the all time list. A rubber arm indeed and ending a career alongside Cy Young is not a bad way to go out, especially for a prankster.

Too Much Joe Nathan?

2009-09-23T22:25:00.033-05:00

Women are said to have a biological clock, most sports are ruled by a clock and each and everyday we all have our day divided up into segments according to a clock. As we know baseball is the one sport that resists being a slave to the ever moving hands of a timepiece, but while the game has no clock, the players do. A clock is governing all of their time in uniform. Time is always ticking for a baseball player, but for a closer time can't move quick enough. The less time a closer spends on the mound the better. Managers and fans want their saves quick and without mess. Joe Nathan is the greatest of all closers to wear a Minnesota Twins uniform, but even he would agree we've seen a little too much of him lately. Nathan is like ice cream. Two scoops of it brings a smile to many faces, but eating a gallon in one sitting may leave many of those faces doubled over in agony. I think it's time to go back to two scoops of Joe Nathan. Nathan's September ERA of 4.35 is a problem and the reason for its rise is simple. While his pitches per outing are roughly the same, the amount of batters he faces per inning pitched has risen as the season progressed.

May: 3.88 batters faced per inning

June: 3.57 batters faced per inning

July: 4.0 batter faced per inning

August: 4.5 batters faced per inning

September as of 9/24: 4.4 batter faced per inning

As fans we happily had two scoops of Joe's ice cream through June, but starting in July we began getting more of Nathan flavored ice cream than we'd prefer. As we enter October Nathan has made many of us adjusts our belts in the wrong direction. He typically begins well by getting an easy out or even two, but then he allows a runner through a walk, hit or some other unfathomable event. Nathan has always been full of ticks (insert clock joke here), but they have become too much a part of his routine. He often will get the ball and try to crush it with his hand through a continual heavy massage. Then he slowly gets into place on the rubber, eyes the runner and throws a pitch that nibbles around the strike zone or misses it be a foot or more. Instead of attacking a batter he prolongs the matchup by dancing around the strike zone when ahead in the count. Meanwhile fans at home are left wanting to just leave the room and come back in a few minutes with the now messy save situation hopefully resolved and a Twins win being analyzed by broadcasters. Too often the ninth inning is an extended exercise in how to increase one's heartrate. Why has watching Joe Nathan pitch become so challenging? Because he has faced nearly an additional batter per inning since June, which puts a runner on base and a lead further in doubt. In addition, Nathan's twitchy idiosyncrasies and unhurried manner of pitching creates tension in fans longing for a quick end to another close Twins game. As the season comes to a close Twins enthusiasts are desperate to cut back on their ice cream intake. Bring back the June flavor of the month: Joe Nathan lite.

Delmon's Departure

2009-09-19T07:16:00.048-05:00

As we sit currently the Minnesota Twins are 3 games behind the Detroit Tigers in what has become a doggie paddle contest to shore for the division title. This season has shown fans a spectrum of play that can only be described as unbelievably unexpected and at times remarkably unwatchable. Putting both descriptions together and whipping them with a kitchen utensil of your choosing you have another season of Twins baseball that has kept you watching to the end despite your mind erasing them from being in contention at least half a dozen times. Sitting in my living room chair watching the middle innings of Friday's game against the Tigers I watched Brian Duensing try to hold on to a slim 2-0 lead in the 5th inning. Marcus Thames led off with a slicing hit to left field. I quickly realize Delmon Young is in left field and watch as he allows the ball to ricochet off his glove and to the wall a short distance behind him. It is generously ruled as a double, but my eyes see it as a single with an error. Thames never scores and the play is forgotten as the Twins win the game in an efficient manner 3-0. On Sunday Young fields a Placido Polanco single in the first inning and drops the ball while exchanging it from his glove to his hand for an error moving Polanco to second base. Watching Delmon Young and his encounters with plays like these the past two years has been an education on how good Jason Kubel's outfield defense is. Which is a little like saying my hail damaged shingles are still effective because I don't need an umbrella while watching TV. He came to the Twins with possible attitude problems, but surprisingly that has not been the issue. To the surprise of no one reading this his inability to generate runs is his greatest foe. Followed closely by his outfield play which often takes the same route to a ball that a pencil takes in the hand of a child trying to print their first letter. Curvy and random, but never straight. Delmon has his supporters that say his potential is still unreached and the Twins should keep him for some future payoff, but lets look at his record thus far.

In 1,779 career plate appearances he has hit .287/.319/.407. He has walked 72 times in his career with 9 of those being intentional passes.

Young's on base percentage has gone from .316 in his first year with the Rays to .336 last year and finally this year's regression down to .288. Delmon Young has had 344 plate appearances this season and has walked an amazingly minuscule 10 times. To give that number some perspective free spirit and free swinging Carlos Gomez has walked 21 times in 327 plate appearances. Delmon Young walks 2.9% of the time compared to the league average of 9.1%

He has scored only 38 runs this year which can be a function of those around him, but his .288 OBP is a much more attributable reason for scoring so few runs.

His UZR/150, which is runs saved above average per 150 games played, is -18.5 this year after being -14.9 last year.

Baseball Prospectus' VORP (value over replacement player) metric places Young at a -5.1. The VORP statistic does not take defense into consideration. This simply means the Twins could call up a Triple A outfielder and that replacement would be worth 5 runs over what Young has produced for the Twins with his bat.

The Twins and Bill Smith were hoodwinked to say the least in their trade for Delmon Young, especially since they gave up their starting shortstop in the deal. Never mind that Matt Garza was involved in the deal and will have a lengthy career as a starting pitcher in the upper half of whatever rotation he is a part of. With that being true Delmon Young is an affable guy according to many people, but it appears he is what we have seen for two years. A free swinging outfielder who lacks power and has no discernible outfield instincts. Truthfully, the fielding can probably be tolerated to a certain degree by the Twins, but the number that screams it's time to move on is the 10 walks this year and .288 OBP. Having a player who so seldom gets on base cannot be accepted especially when other positions on the team have not done their job getting on base. Delmon Young is said to have great potential, but the Twins should realize by now his potential is something no one has seen with any regularity. Don't let potential fool you into viewing a player as what you want him to be, when really he's what you have been seeing all along.

Ron Mahay is just like most of us

2009-09-15T21:50:00.021-05:00

Ron Mahay is probably the least regarded of the pitchers that reside in the Minnesota Twins bullpen each night. He was sent to baseball extinction by being designated for assignment by the (ugh!) Kansas City Royals earlier this season. This is code for you're not needed anymore and please place your belongings in the provided cardboard box and leave the premises. Mahay must forever be indebted to the Twins for giving him a chance to unpack his box and receive resurrection back into the world of Major League pitching at the age of 38. As a Minnesota Twin his role is well defined. He's a situational lefty that will often only pitch to one or two batters with little margin for error. His scope of responsibility is squeezed into about 15-20 pitches per outing at most. What a lot of people don't realize is Ron Mahay is a lot like most of us. He must do one thing well and do it consistently. Slip ups of any measure will cause him to lose the last pitching job he'll likely ever have. The rest of us who don't throw a baseball for a living go to work each day knowing, especially in this economy, that our jobs can be gone as quickly as Mahay can again be designated for assignment. Stars have built up leverage against job loss, we haven't and neither has Mahay. Baseball has its stars as it always will, but there are more Ron Mahays in the majors than Derek Jeters or Josh Becketts. We all have more Ron Mahay in us than Joe Mauer. Everyday we do our job. Sometimes well, sometimes very well and sometimes not up to the standards our jobs require. In reality, all of our employment futures are uncertain. So next time you see Mahay pitch realize he's like the rest of us and give yourself...I mean him a cheer.

Observations of a Season's Sunset

2009-09-13T14:57:00.039-05:00

Another baseball season is approaching the finish line. Before this one departs my dad and I made the trip to the Metrodome earlier than normal for the 12:05 start time for the Minnesota Twins versus the Oakland Athletics last Saturday. Our early arrival downtown was needed because of President Obama's lunchtime speech at the Target Center in conjunction with neverending 35W construction concerns. Why not have an early lunch at Hubert's located right across from the ballpark we thought? I had never been in the restaurant/bar and thought this would probably be the last chance I would have due to baseball games moving across town to the shiny new Target Field next year. Inside Huberts one gets the atmopshere everyone deserves when they enter a sportsbar. There are pictures of Twins and Vikings that are no longer around in body or in uniform and framed magazines are mounted on walls that have held those same magazines for at least a decade. Walking around the bar you see players who defined the games of your childhood, but soon we had to journey across the street to see players that the youth of today will see up in a sportsbar 20 years from now.

The funny thing about baseball is as a fan you just want a chance to play for something. The Twins entering the game had barely a 10% of making the playoffs. Those are good enough odds for a baseball fan. They don't need anymore than that, they may want more, but 10% is enough to watch a game and think it is meaningful. Not just a meaningless piece is a 162 piece puzzle. As Jeff Manship labored through the first inning my dad and I wondered who the best Jeff was to wear a Twins uniform. Jeff Reed, Jeff Reboulet, Jeff Reardon, there's no doubt it had to be Reardon we thought as Manship got through the first inning without giving up a run. As Manship struggled through 4 innings the family in front of us faced dilemmas of their own. Bringing the family of four to the ballpark always sounds like an enjoyable experience until the reality that baseball's leisurely pace wasn't designed for children under 4 years of age. The mom and dad struggled with occupying their children with treats brought from home. They were quickly rejected as unsatisfying. A Reeses peanut butter cup was soon found, but little chocolate fingerprints on the back of mom's pink Twins shirt showed all around who would win today . The family disharmony was repaired with a big helping of cotton candy that both children kept their attention focused to. Smiles returned to the parents, but they knew they were outmatched and left after Manship called it a day in the fourth inning.

A word on Manship. He with the strong jaw line seems to be the kind of pitcher that appears in control of himself with the willingness to go deep into a game. It is a false front. When he loses it, "it" is gone in a hurry. No 100 pitches for him. At about 65-75 pitches he peters out. The life of a relief pitcher may be what he tells his grandchildren about.

The Twins snooze through much of the game. Moments that stand out are the startling catch a fellow fan makes 15 feet away from us on a line shot. He decided to bring his glove and will never leave home for a ballgame without it. He snagged the line drive with ease that left my dad and I wondering if we would have the same success if put in a similar situation. Another snapshot is of Justin Morneau. He has decided to try and slug his way out of his current batting slump. He takes Herculean swings that would make Ruth blush. Those swings often result in him badly miss timing the ball and evoking oddly angled foul balls into the stands. Sluggers never try to ease their way out of a slump. What fun would that be?

The Twins are losing 4-2 in the 6th inning and second and third base are occupied with Athletics. Jesse Crain let two runs score quickly erasing the work the Twins did in catching up the prior half inning. Mijares makes his point as one of the best relief men in baseball by shutting down the A's in 1.2 innings with 4 strikeouts and giving his team a chance to win. He's a few sizes larger than he ought to be, but for the Twins he along with Matt Guerrier have solidified a bullpen teams had been punching holes through earlier in the year. Now the Twins enter the most unsettling part of the year with Mijares. The offseason. He'll be out of country and most likely not turning away many meals. They can only hope he makes it to Florida in "a shape" somewhat similar to the one he is currently. The Twins lose the game 4-2, Mijares kept them in it, but their bats were never in it. Those playoff chances sink below 10% and fans turn their thoughts to the Vikings playing the next day. But wait, the Tigers lose that night, the Twins clobber the A's the next day 8-0 and hope becomes a flicker again.

Improve the Middle and Wins Will Follow

2009-09-10T21:05:00.025-05:00

Many wise baseball people have said a good team is strong up the middle of the field defensively and with the bat. Strong teams have a good catcher, shortstop, second baseman, and center fielder. Look at any of the playoff contending teams this year. They have a strong middle defensively and offensively. In truth, the Twins have struggled to field a strong middle of the field in any one game this season.

Starting with catcher the Twins easily have the best in Joe Mauer. With the bat and the glove he has no peers maybe in the history of the game. Unfortunately that is where the strengths end. For the sake of argument I will include the Twins third basemen in these statistics since it has been more or less underperformed by those that have played there this year. For the season all players that have played 3B, SS, and 2B for the Twins have hit a puny .229 and more devastating to the team their On Base Percentage is a dismal .297. The Twins are the worst in the majors at 2B production. Second basemen have hit an unbelievablely low .200 for the Twins. They are 24th in SS production and 24th at the 3B position as well.

Centerfielders for the Twins this year have hit a combined .270 with an OBP of .344. If Carlos Gomez (.237/.293/.348) performed at even an average level at the plate the centerfield numbers would be more than respectable. Regardless, the centerfield numbers place the Twins in the middle of all Major League teams in terms of batting production with a large contribution coming from Denard Span's at bats.

How active the Twins will be in the free agent market this off season remains to be seen. Looking at the numbers the middle of the field have produced this year it is imperative they look to the outside for solutions to at least two positions. All reports indicate Danny Valencia will be the starting 3B next season. That leaves 2B, SS and CF. Carlos Gomez is going nowhere, although I wonder what his value is to other teams via a trade. With Delmon Young departing, the outfield should have Span in LF, Gomez in CF, and Cuddyer in RF. That leaves the Twins needing to fill SS and 2B with free agents. There will be good free agents available at both those positions and especially at 2B. What the Twins can't do is settle and hope someone on the team will come up with a big season playing SS and 2B. We've seen what Nick Punto, Brendan Harris and Alexi Casilla can do over the long haul. Fans deserve to see a new middle of the infield at Target Field. Doing nothing to fix an obvious problem cannot be an option.

Blackburn, Perkins and the Magical 4.5 Strikeouts

2009-09-05T21:06:00.023-05:00

In Bill James' nearly 1000 page book The Baseball Historical Abstract he has an article on page 289 detailing a simple statistic that determines a pitcher's effectiveness and career longevity. Does the pitcher have at least 4.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and/or is he close to the league average in the strikeouts per 9 innings category. Simply put James says to be an effective pitcher with the ability to stay in the majors for a substantial time a pitcher must have a K/9 ratio of 4.5 or better. You may look at any number of statistics in terms of a pitcher's ability, but the K/9 ratio tells the whole story. It's a story Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins may not want to read. Neither has shown the kind of strikeout ability that leads one to believe they will have long and successful careers. Last year Blackburn was thought of highly for having a promising rookie season which included going 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA and pitching brilliantly in the division tie breaking game versus the Chicago White Sox. Surely he would improve as a pitcher in the following seasons? Not necessarily. Last year his K/9 was 4.47 while the league average was 6.83. In other words the average pitcher was getting 2.36 more strikeouts per game than Blackburn was. In addition, opponents batted .292 against him compared to the league average of .265. His promising year may have been a result of the league never seeing him before and some luck. This year he has trended in the wrong direction. His K/9 has sunk to 4.00 (league average: 6.96) and opponents have hit .297 (league average: .263) off him. Strangely, Nick Blackburn may have peaked already as a pitcher. He can't be effective with the pitches he possesses right now. Not striking out at least 4.5 batters per nine innings will catch up to every pitcher. Unless Blackburn develops another pitch and increases his strikeout totals he has a limited future. The Twins would be wise to trade him now while his value is highest. All of the above can be applied to Glen Perkins as well. His K/9 in 2008 was 4.41 and this year it is 4.20. Has he pitched well consistently? No, and injuries have now become a part of who he is. The Twins would be wise to move him as well. Feel free to read Bill James' article concerning the magical 4.5 strikeouts number, but James has done the heavy lifting regarding the research. Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins should not be a part of the Twins future plans. The simple number 4.5 explains why.

Morneau's Late Summer Swoons

2009-09-04T21:06:00.011-05:00

As this Twins season comes to a disappointing conclusion Justin Morneau is ending his season in much the same way he has for the last five years. He seems to be lost at the plate and out in the field. I'll excuse his fielding as an aberration, but his lack of hitting as the summer comes to a close has become an unfortunate pattern. The numbers speak for themselves.

2005: Batted .211 after the All Star break going 52 for 247.

2006: The pattern breaks with Morneau slugging the Twins to a division title and he earns the American League MVP.

2007: In August he bats .227 going 25 for 110. He dips even lower in September hitting .215 in going 20 for 93.

2008: The Twins lose the division by one game and Morneau going 25 for 103 in September for a .243 average is a main reason they come up short to the White Sox.

2009: In August the Twins' pitching falters badly helping Morneau hide his 18 for 82 slump and .220 average for the month.

As summer ends Morneau's hitting simply collapses into the .220 range. This trend has occurred 4 of the last 5 years and has to be concerning to management. Currently he seems impatient at the plate and pressing himself to make something happen. With 28 games left in the season Morneau needs to see he still has an opportunity to end the year on a positive note and regain some self confidence by being more patient at the plate.

Say Goodbye Griffey

2009-09-03T22:22:00.012-05:00

I pains me to read that Ken Griffey Jr. is thinking about coming back for the 2010 season with the Seattle Mariners. It hurts because I was sixteen years old when he broke into the majors in 1989 and collected his rookie cards just knowing he was going to be a star. He was a star at only nineteen when he roamed centerfield for the Seattle Mariners. He made some of the most amazing catches I have ever seen. One stands out from his early years. He was playing a shallow centerfield in Yankee Stadium and had to run full out back to the wall and jump high above the wall robbing someone of a home run. Griffey ran back to the dugout waving his glove in the air along with a big grin on his face. Junior was just a young kid playing baseball. Soon he played with his father, Ken Sr., and they both had the ultimate father/son moment when they hit back to back home runs. Years went by. I went to college and he got older, gained a few pounds, hit more home runs, ran into walls and his body began to break down. He missed far too many games than he deserved because of injury. His prominence faded in fans' minds, but he kept playing. He was switched to right field in Cincinatti because it required less ground to be covered. Seeing him as a Cincinnati Red never felt right. In 2008 he was traded to the White Sox and threw out Michael Cuddyer at home with a dynamite throw in the 163rd game of the season. The White Sox won the game 1-0 and the division with Griffey's throw being the most important defensive play of the game. That is how it should have ended, but great players seldom just walk away. They remember being that grinning kid playing baseball two decades before and try to catch that magic again. It doesn't happen.

Ken Griffey Jr. is currently batting .219 with 14 home runs for his original team the Seattle Mariners. He has 625 career home runs putting him in the elite status of baseball players while never being mentioned in steroid conversations. Ken Griffey Jr. is an icon that I want to remember as a superstar, not what he is now: a .200 hitter who doesn't play everyday. It's time to call it a career, retire and go to the Hall of Fame in five years. Don't hang on trying to capture that one last ball before it goes over the wall. Wave goodbye and let fans realize how lucky they were to watch you play baseball.

Twins OPS vs. Yankees OPS

2009-09-01T06:54:00.020-05:00

I once didn't like the concept of OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) as a statistic because it combines two aspects of baseball that are relatively unconnected. Now I see it as a valuable way of judging how complete a player is in terms of helping his team by getting on base and driving in runs. I wondered how the Twins main hitters compared in OPS to the Yankees main hitters. Granted, the Yankees have more big "name" hitters than the Twins, but I had to pick five hitters to compare from each team. On the Twins it was easy. I looked at Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer. Basically their first five hitters in their lineup. With the Yankees I took Damon, Jeter, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Matsui. I simply added together the OPS numbers. These statistics are from August 30th.

Yankees OPS:

Damon: .891

Jeter: .875

Teixeira: .923

Rodriguez: .908

Matsui: .888

Total: 4.485

Twins OPS:

Span: .800

Mauer: 1.054

Morneau: .923

Kubel: .890

Cuddyer: .849

Total: 4.516

The results are interesting, if not surprising. Many fans think of the Yankee hitters as giants among the rest of the league's hitters. This isn't the case when compared to the Twins main hitters. The overall OPS numbers show the Twins are the equal of those five Yankee hitters. The Yankees are obviously getting more production from the bottom of their lineup than the Twins and their pitching is far superior which accounts for the difference in victories between the two clubs. In my opinion, the OPS numbers show that the Twins are not far away from being a top five team record wise in the American League. With the addition of hitters who are productive at the bottom of the lineup and having two more reliable starting pitchers the Twins wouldn't be the Yankees, but may not be that far away either. The core hitters of the Twins may be the best in club's history. Now the front office needs to compliment that core by filling in holes that are keeping this team from reaching its ultimate potential.

Pavano for Pino?

2009-08-28T20:55:00.012-05:00

On August 7th the Twins obtained Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later. Typically when one thinks of a PTBNL it is not a pitcher in AAA who has evolved and become better as he rises through the minors and is on the verge of being called up to the big leagues. Yohan Pino is that kind of pitcher and a PTBNL in the Twins eyes. I have never seen Pino pitch and the first time I do will be with him wearing an Indians hat. That is unfortunate because Pino's career minor league numbers are strong. In 148 games, 66 of which were starts, he has an ERA of 3.27, WHIP of 1.15, he fans 8.1 batters per nine innings and has a K/BB ratio of 3.67. This year between Triple A and Double A Pino had his K/BB at 4.00 which is outstanding and the sign of a pitcher ready for the next step into the major leagues. With the Twins struggling for reliable pitching this is a move that hurts and seems unexplainable unless the Twins know something about Pino no one else does. Regardless, Twins fans first lost Johan and now they have lost Yohan. Let's hope the latter proves to be less painful.

Give Duensing and Bullpen Day a Chance

2009-08-26T13:46:00.017-05:00

The Minnesota Twins have pitching problems. It's a problem the team didn't expect coming out of spring training, but it is here and has been for the better part of the season. The team is 4.5 games out of first place and has a 63-64 record. The pitching has been consistently inconsistent. It will most likely remain that way for the rest of the year. Instead of searching for a magic bullet to help ignite the pitching staff down the stretch, here is a "radical" suggestion.

The Twins should announce the starting rotation for the rest of the year as this: Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, Duensing and a Bullpen Day. Yes, a bullpen day. I'll explain later. The top 3 pitchers in that rotation will probably give you solid pitching the rest of the way. Brian Duensing has done everything the Twins have asked of him. He has spot started once, pitched in long relief and short relief with fairly positive results. His ERA as a starter is 3.60 in only ten innings and 5.34 as a reliever in 30.1 innings. He started 101 games in the minors with an ERA 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.28. Those numbers are solid and worth a look as a consistent starter. The Twins should consider anything over 5 innings a start as a bonus with Duensing. It is a job he is capable of.

Now the Bullpen Day. The team has had many bullpen days this year, but they weren't scheduled. Now they would be. Due to injuries and poor performances the Twins will not have five reliable starters at any point this year. They may not even have three right now. Gardenhire should do what Tony LaRussa did with his Oakland team briefly in the early/mid nineties and what the 2007 Colorado Rockies did as well. Designate a day in the rotation as Bullpen Day. Assign pitchers to certain innings through the 6th inning. Then turn the game over to the typical relievers that finish the game: Mijares, Guerrier and Nathan. Liriano and Perkins once healthy would be in the bullpen in this scenario. Either could start a game and go 2 or 3 innings, then give the ball for the next two innings to Manship or the half of the Liriano/Perkins combo that didn't start the game. Finally, pitch the fifth and sixth innings with whomever is fresh that day. Would the Twins do well under this system? No one knows, but it would bring some stability to the entire pitching staff. Baseball is a sport that seldom embraces change and the Twins franchise is no different. What are the chances the team changes their philosophy and adopts this "solution" to their pitching woes? Zero to none, but I would enjoy watching it as the team pushes for a division title.

Why Sacrifice?

2009-08-26T08:24:00.018-05:00

In last night's game against the Baltimore Orioles Alexi Casilla came to the plate with Carlos Gomez on first and Delmon Young on second and no one out in the 6th inning. Casilla tried unsuccessfully to bunt the runners into scoring position. The Twins were fortunate he did not lay down the bunt because later in the at bat he laced a double off the baggy driving in Young and moving Gomez to third and kick starting a three run rally that tied the game at six. If Casilla had bunted the runners over it is possible the Twins don't win the game. Why does it make a difference? Using scoring expectation data from Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers it becomes evident why.

With a runner on first and no out a team has a 41.7% chance of scoring. Bunting him over changes that scoring expectation to 41%. No scoring advantage gain.

With runners on first and second and no outs a team has a 61.6% chance of scoring. Bunting the runners over changes the scoring expectation to 67.4%. An increase of about 6%.

Those that argue against the sacrifice bunt say it is giving up outs. When Casilla came to the plate the Twins only had 12 outs left in the game. It can be said bunting in Casilla's situation was the smartest strategic move according to the numbers. The team would have gained nearly a 6% better chance of scoring, but with only 2 sacrifices all year and the way Casilla is swinging the bat is it a risk worth taking? Many Twins fans would say no.

It's called a uniform for a reason

2009-08-23T21:17:00.009-05:00

On Sunday night baseball it's another game in the ongoing (neverending) Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry. CC Sabathia is on the mound looking like he's ready to catch some ZZZ's. Why? Because of his massively oversized shirt and pants which resemble pajamas. He adjusts the ill fitting shirt on nearly every pitch. Nearly all players have taken the concept of a baseball uniform and destroyed the concept of uniformity. Everyone is wearing different length pants and tucking in their shirt in varying ways. Overall, players look sloppy. I remember players in the 70's and 80's required to show sock/stirrup everyday. Players looked professional. Teams have now let this trend slide so far it will be difficult to reverse course. As silly as this sounds the commissioner's office may have to institute a dress code to reign in sloppy attire. Players/teams, I'm ok with no socks showing, just have your pants stop near your shoes and tuck in your shirt. Look professional, not like you just popped some popcorn at 9:30 at night and are ready to relax on the couch before bed.

Matt Guerrier = MVP

2009-08-23T12:31:00.000-05:00

Matt Guerrier came into his 301st MLB game last night needing 5 outs for a Twins victory and his first save of the year. With Nathan not available he was the best option available. He did give up a run, but preserved the Twins win. He never shows emotion, does the thankless work of a set up man and rarely has a poor day. As of August 23rd his Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) was 23.1 which made him the highest rated Twins pitcher in that category. Guerrier's VORP is ahead of Mariano Rivera, 22.5, and Jonathan Papelbon, 21.5. Not the company many fans think of when they see Matt Guerrier pitch. In fact, only Andrew Bailey of Oakland has a better VORP score for relievers at 28.4. Despite a down year for the Twins the team still has hopes for the playoffs. Without Guerrier those hopes may very well be non-existent and because of that he is the Twins MVP: Most Valuable Pitcher.